Titans vs. 49ers Odds
| Pick |
|---|
| Titans +3.5 |
| Lean 49ers -3 |
Titans +3.5
Sean Koerner: I'll be betting on the Titans to bounce back in Week 16, as it's a minor miracle they were almost able to beat the Steelers despite having a -4 turnover margin in the game.
You can read my full breakdown of this matchup here.
Despite 63% of the action coming in on the 49ers as of writing (check real-time public betting data here), the line was bet down from +3.5 to +3 across all books. It's clear that sharps have been all over the Titans at +3.5 — I believe it makes sense to buy the extra half-point, especially considering just how valuable that number is. I’d play this to -140.
Editor's note (6:30 p.m. ET): The Titans are now +3.5 across the market, meaning there's no longer a need to buy the half-point. Find the best real-time line here.
Lean 49ers -3
Brandon Anderson: It's our last Thursday night game of the season, and it’s a good one with two playoff teams fighting for positioning. The 49ers have been one of the league’s hottest teams, winning five of their last six, but the Titans look like a live Thursday night dog.
Everyone is focusing on the wrong Titans injury news, though. Yes, it’s exciting that A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are back, especially since the weakest spot of this Niners team is their secondary. But the more important injury news is in the trenches, where Taylor Lewan and Roger Saffold are out — that's the entire left side of the Titans' offensive line, which is especially bad news given the way Ryan Tannehill has struggled with sacks and turnovers in recent weeks.
For both teams, this matchup could come down to the passing game.
The Titans have had the best run defense by Expected Points Added (EPA) over the last six weeks, per RBSDM, but they rank 24th in passing defense EPA over that stretch. The Niners have the top offense over that stretch, ranking top-two in rushing and passing EPA per play. Tennessee's defensive front also hasn’t been dominating as much as it was earlier this season while San Francisco is winning games in the trenches with Trent Williams and George Kittle leading the way.
A number of trends point toward San Francisco. Tannehill has struggled in primetime night games, going just 5-10 against the spread (ATS) in his career, and Mike Vrabel is 8-14-1 ATS in toss-up games with the spread at a field goal or below, per our Action Labs data.
Thursday night non-division favorites have also covered 59% of the time.
I’m not normally one to back Kyle Shanahan as a favorite, but these teams are going in opposite direction. Now that the line dropped to the key number at -3, I’ll lean on the Niners to get the job done, but I’m not looking to play past -3.
