Tennessee
+10
I faded the Titans in Week 1 because they’re due for regression in some key metrics that are mainly driven by luck. They were 6-2 in one-score games last season but are already 0-1 this year.
There isn’t a doubt that the Bills are the best team in the NFL right now. I just think 10 points is a bit too much to be giving up. I project it closer to 8.5.
As of Monday morning, 65% of the action has come in on the Bills, but the line has stayed at 10. I think a lot of the sharper money has come in on Tennessee. This feels like a bit of a Week 1 overreaction line, as much as I love the Bills this season.
Ed Oliver (ankle) being ruled out is a big hit to Buffalo's defense, especially against Derrick Henry, and potentially being without Davis is a blow for the offense.
Mike Vrabel and the Titans should be able to keep this one close enough after a dreadful Week 1 performance.
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Jamison Crowder
Over 3.5 Receptions
With Davis out, I'm expecting Crowder's playing time to increase to about 60% routes run tonight. Crowder saw a healthy 33% target per route run in his Bills debut against the Rams, and he had a solid 6.3 Average Depth of Target.
Given all that, I'm projecting Crowder for 4.2 receptions and to go over this line 62% of the time.
FanDuel has Crowder going over 3.5 receptions at +104, as of 6 p.m. ET.
Gabriel Davis
Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Editor's Note, 5:24 p.m. ET: Gabriel Davis is reportedly going to miss Monday Night Football against the Titans because of an ankle injury.
Davis popped up on the injury report on Saturday due to an ankle injury he reportedly suffered in practice last week. There’s no word on whether he’ll play in this one.
Still, I like grabbing this number now because he will have to suit up for this bet to be in play. If he’s ruled out, you get your money back.
If Davis is active, it means he’s closer to 100% than we realize. I doubt the Bills would risk playing him if he wasn’t, especially in Week 2. Buffalo has enough weapons in the passing game to survive without Davis for one week.
If Davis is active tonight, we’ll likely see his prop move closer to the 54.5-55.5 range. The Titans’ cornerback depth could be an issue with Elijah Molden on injured reserve and Kristian Fulton out.
I’m projecting Davis for closer to 56.5 assuming he plays.
