Monday Night Football Picks
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Brandon Anderson: We get two Monday night games this week, and this first one should feel familiar. The Titans upset the Bills in each of the last two Octobers, with Derrick Henry piling up 143 yards in one meeting and five TDs overall between the two.
Tennessee is just a bad matchup for the Bills, who have gone all-in on a roster built to pass and stop the pass while quietly being pretty mediocre on both sides of the run game.
Can these Titans still run the ball? That remains to be seen, and it didn't look great in Week 1. Still, Henry has been a tough matchup and it's yet another spot where a run-first underdog could bleed the clock and limit chances for the opponent to get too far ahead.
Buffalo looked unbeatable in the opener, but the Bills were the league's highest variance team last season. Mike Vrabel and Tennessee just seem to bring out the worst in them.
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Sam Farley: Over the offseason, there was a lot of negative talk surrounding Treylon Burks, so much so that it was hard to miss. I’ve got to hold my hand up: I listened to that advice – but after watching Week 1 it’s clear I was wrong.
Burks has got the juice.
He hauled in three catches (on five targets) for 55 yards in a solid debut and I’m expecting him to showcase his abilities again on Monday night. Burks’ receiving yards line sits at 31.5, which looks like value, even against a good Bills defense.
Against the Giants, Burks accounted for 34.1% of the Titans’ air yards, meaning that he should get more targets this week. If he does, then he’ll excel as he averaged 11 yards after the catch and averaged 4.9 yards of separation on his targets.
Everything is lining up for Burks to smash that total and I’d take him to go over up to 39.5.
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John LanFranca: Both the Vikings and Eagles hit the ground running in Week 1, turning in impressive winning performances. But while A.J. Brown was electric against Detroit in his Eagles debut, he will find a much more difficult matchup against Minnesota.
The Lions’ pass defense against the Eagles a week ago ranked 25th in DVOA, while the Vikings admirably turned in a performance that ranked 12th against an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
The debut of Kevin O'Connell was equally impressive. The new Vikings head coach moved Justin Jefferson around the formation beautifully with pre-snap motion and alignment variations. It was all part of an attacking gameplan that saw the Vikings pass the ball at a 54% rate despite playing with the lead.
A few weeks from now, it's unlikely we'll get plus money in a spot like this for an ascending Vikings team. This line will not move to three. Thus, I'm happily taking the value with Minnesota to win outright.
Play the Vikings moneyline +120 down to +110.
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Sam Farley: Miles Sanders’ usage has been something that’s plagued Eagles fans and fantasy managers for a long time, but it looks like he’s finally getting a chance to be “The Man.”
Week 1 was big for Sanders. He achieved three goal-line rushes, which was 50% of his figure from 2021. His 13 carries resulted in 96 yards (an impressive 7.4 yards per carry). Even more impressive was his 6.0 yards after contact, the fourth highest in the NFL.
This matchup pits him against the Vikings, who dominated the Packers in the opening week. But as impressive as the Vikings’ defense was, they still allowed 111 rushing yards, with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion managing 9.8 and 4.5 yards per carry, respectively.
We’ll see plenty of Jalen Hurts on the ground, but there’s evidence the coaching staff has more trust in Sanders this year. It’s worth taking the over on 57.5 rushing yards, and I’d play it up to 59.5.
