Titans at Chiefs Betting Picks: AFC Championship Game
- Odds: Chiefs -7.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Kickoff: 3:05 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Sunday morning and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The public is all over the Kansas City Chiefs to cover after Patrick Mahomes led an electric comeback to win in the Divisional Round. But what do our experts think? And what about the high over/under?
Our experts reveal how they're betting the AFC Championship Game with spread, total and prop picks.
Stuckey: Titans +7.5
I'll always side with an underdog catching 7.5 points in the playoffs when they have a glaring advantage on one or both sides of the ball.
I just don’t see how the Chiefs can slow down Derrick Henry. Their run defense is poor at every level. Whether you look at their overall stats (29th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA) or the individual grades for run defense, it’s all bad.
And with so much focus on Henry, I think Ryan Tannehill can get going again with his play-action passing — an area he excelled in all season long. I know he didn’t do much through the air over the first two playoff games, but that was against two of the NFL's best secondaries.
Look for A.J. Brown to reappear with some deep shots and for Tannehill to have a big day throwing over the middle of the field off play-action.
The other thing to keep in mind is red-zone production. The Titans have been scoring touchdowns at a historic clip since Tannehill took over, and the Chiefs have had some struggles inside the 20 with less room for Patrick Mahomes to work with and a less-than-stellar run game. Now, the Titans have had a poor red-zone defense, but this is an opportunity for them to keep this close.
The Titans secondary scares me against Mahomes and Co., but I think Henry and the play-action game can keep this within one score. And the Chiefs tend to get conservative with a late lead, so the backdoor could also come into play if the Titans are down 10 to 14 points in the fourth quarter.
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Stuckey is 327-283-9 (53.6%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.
Mike Randle: Chiefs -7.5
I'm gonna disagree with Stuckey here.
There are two mismatches in this matchup: Henry vs. the Chiefs' run defense and Mahomes vs. the Titans' pass defense. With the game being played in Arrowhead Stadium, I favor the Chiefs' aerial attack to eventually wear down the Titans.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be able to exploit big positional mismatches.
Hill had his best game of the season with 11 receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown against the Titans in Week 10. He was covered by cornerback Adoree' Jackson, who finished 66th with a -15.3 cover rating (per PlayerProfiler). Kelce should also be able to take advantage of a defense that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and third-most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Mahomes’ production regressed this season, particularly after his patella dislocation in Week 7. However, excluding Week 17, he’s averaged 299 passing yards over his past four games with a total of 11 touchdown passes. His rushing yards have also increased, tallying 53 yards on the ground last week in their 51-31 win over the Texans.
The Titans will also need to limit the passing game production of the Chiefs running backs, as they allowed the second-most receptions (101) to opposing backfields. Damien Williams caught all five of his targets for 32 yards in that Week 10 matchup, and finished with 21 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in the Divisional Round.
This is a case of too many offensive weapons for Kansas City, a team that didn’t blink facing a 24-0 deficit against the Titans and subsequently reeled off 51 points. Tennessee is on a three-game road winning streak, but that ends here.
I’m taking the Chiefs to win by double-digits and advance to their first Super Bowl in 50 years. I would bet this number up to Chiefs -8.5.
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Matthew Freedman: Under 52.5
Outdoor postseason games have trended to the under with a record of 77-58-4, good for a 10.5% return on investment.
And whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always bet the under anyway. That didn't work out well for me in the Divisional Round, but I expect the market will be too bullish on the over because of the 82 points scored in Kansas City.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, and I expect the Titans to lean on the ground game, given that running back Derrick Henry is currently in god mode and the Chiefs are No. 29 in run defense DVOA.
With a run-heavy attack, the Titans are likely to slow the game down, which could drive the total to the under. They've leaned on the run in both of their playoff games, and the under is 2-0.
It might seem counterintuitive to bet the under when one of the league's best offenses is at home, but under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs actually have an under record of 36-23-1 at home (including playoffs, 18.9% ROI).
Since 2013, no home coach has been more profitable for under bettors than Reid.
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Freedman is 571-446-22 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.
Chris Raybon: Derrick Henry Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Over his past 21 games dating back to last season, Henry is averaging 21.6 carries for 119.4 yards.
Over his past eight games — which started with a 23-carry, 188-yard thrashing of the Chiefs in Week 10 — he’s averaging 25.1 carries for 159.1 yards, with a median performance of 24.5 carries for 170.5 yards. Only twice over those past eight contests has the 6-foot-3, 247-pound monster been held to fewer than even 149 yards. And the Chiefs ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted run-defense efficiency during the regular season, according to Football Outsiders.
Henry has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his past 21 games, but a more conservative projection of 4.8 (his career average) would put him at 117.6 yards when using his eight-game median of 24.5 carries, so I would bet the over up to 116.5.
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Raybon is 230-177-15 (56.5%) overall betting on the NFL. Follow his picks in our free app.
Freedman: Patrick Mahomes' Passing Props
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -210 [Bet now at bet365]
- Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns: +120 [Bet now at FanDuel]
In the 26 full games Mahomes and Hill have played together, Mahomes has passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns in 20 games (76.9%) and more than 2.5 touchdowns in 14 games (53.8%).
With Hill, Mahomes has had a mean of 2.73 touchdowns and median of three.
Against the Titans in Week 10, Mahomes passed for three touchdowns.
