The Titans and Chiefs are always near the top of the AFC and these two teams are set to meet once again in primetime.
Unfortunately, the Titans haven’t looked as dominant as they have in the past and the spread for this game is a whopping 12.5 points, which might suck some of the value out of betting a side.
However, if you’re still looking for ways to get some action on this matchup, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting remains unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Over/Under 25.5 Rush Yards
Although Tennessee has the league’s best rush defense by DVOA, this number feels too low.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s usage is slightly down this season, but not enough to make a massive difference. Edwards-Helaire has cruised over this line in five of his seven games this season and in 28 of 34, dating back to last year.
Let’s try and guess his usage for this matchup.
Even if there is some competition in the backfield, Edwards-Helaire’ Rush Attempt marketshare hasn’t flinched. He picked up 56% of the carries in Week 6 and then 47% in Week 7.
I’d conservatively say Edwards-Helaire should get between seven and nine carries in this matchup. Edwards-Helaire has had between seven and nine carries in five of seven games and he’s also had a 19-carry effort.
If that’s the case, he certainly doesn’t need to overperform. Edwards-Helaire’s 4.4 YPC is more than enough to get him to 30 yards, even if his attempts finish on the lower end.
Projections agree with my analysis. Three different projection models project Edwards-Helaire to crush this number:
The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 30 rush yards
Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 30.5 rush yards
Rotoballer’s Jon Anderson’s Weekly Projections: 44 rush yards
As bad as the matchup looks, it’s almost inconceivable that Edwards-Helaire doesn’t get past 25 rushing yards.
Pick: Over 25.5 Rush Yards
Travis Kelce
Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
This is the exact opposite of the Edwards-Helaire play.
Tennessee’s pass defense is much worse than its rush defense, which makes this an excellent matchup for Travis Kelce.
However, this line is too high.
Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 option and he continues to receive an absurd number of targets. However, his overall efficiency has slightly dipped.
Kelce’s aDOT is down over two yards per target from last season, dropping 9.0 to 6.7. As a result, he’s on pace for a career low in yards per reception (11.8). His catch rate is still impossibly high and he continues to cruise over his receptions line, but he hasn’t consistently gone over his receiving yards line.
Kelce has fallen short of 74 receiving yards in three of his seven games this season and fell very short against Las Vegas (25 yards), Indianapolis (58 yards) and Los Angeles (51).
Kelce will get plenty of targets, but he might make fewer big plays than he has in the past. I think he’ll fall short of this number.
Tennessee has allowed just 58 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season and the Titans held Kelce to 65 yards last season.
Meanwhile, our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Kelce for just 65 yards on Sunday Night Football. That’s a significant edge and represents an auto-play for me on PrizePicks.
Pick: Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
