Fresh off a bye, the Chiefs welcome the red-hot Titans for Sunday Night Football.
While Ryan Tannehill’s status remains in question, the Titans enter as victors in five straight. Malik Willis made his first career start last week in a 17-10 win over the Texans where Derrick Henry rushed for over 200 yards once again.
Kansas City, meanwhile, blew out San Francisco before its bye, bouncing back from a loss to the Bills. Patrick Mahomes threw for 423 yards while JuJu Smith-Schuster broke the 100-yard mark for the second-straight game.
The Chiefs enter as 12.5-point favorites in a lopsided primetime matchup between two divisional leaders.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Tennessee-Kansas City
Game Total Under 46.5 (-128)
As of this writing, Ryan Tannehill’s status is up in the air as he appears to be a game-time decision. If Tannehill plays, I like this number. If backup Malik Willis starts, I love this number.
The Titans are the slowest-paced team in the NFL, and even if Tannehill is under center, Mike Vrabel should rely heavily on Derrick Henry in a run-heavy game script. Tennessee’s wide receivers are banged up, too, as Treylon Burks and Kyle Phillips remain on the IR.
Aside from Week 2, when Buffalo won 41-7, the Titans have gone under 46.5 in every single game. The game total hasn’t broken 30 over the last two weeks.
If Willis is the starter, Tennessee will likely utilize his legs more than his arm. He went 6-for-10 for 55 yards and an interception last week, adding five rushes for 12 yards. Even in a game that Henry finished with 32 carries and 219 yards, Tennessee scored just 17 points.
The Chiefs should be able to score, but I don’t expect a 41-point outburst like Buffalo did. The under is 43-25-1 (63%) when K.C. is home under Andy Reid and 10-4 (71%) as a double-digit home favorite with Mahomes.
Kansas City should cruise to victory. The Titans, who are playing just their third out-of-conference game in 2022, are completely overmatched despite their five-game win streak. They’re in for a rude awakening given the AFC South’s abysmal stature.
Isiah Pacheco
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Isiah Pacheco was named K.C.'s starter two weeks ago against San Francisco and rushed eight times for 43 yards. He is the best running back on the team and it’s only a matter of time before he consistently sees double-digit rushes.
While Pacheco wasn’t used as much until that game was out of hand — K.C. barely ran the football — this sets up as the perfect game script for Pacheco to thrive.
The Chiefs enter as 12.5-point favorites and should dominate at home. They’ll either draw a banged up Tannehill or Willis, who has struggled as expected in his rookie season. If Kansas City jumps out to a big lead, the explosive Pacheco should see plenty of carries as the clock runs.
While running backs haven’t found the end zone often against Tennessee, they do average 4.3 yards per carry. Despite their No. 3 ranking in rush defense, per PFF, the Titans haven’t drawn many competent offenses through eight weeks.
The only comparable matchup was Buffalo. That three-headed monster of James Cook, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary combined for 89 yards on 20 rushes in a blowout win.
Pacheco will get the garbage-time carries and is the most efficient runner on the ground. He is a powerful runner and if he gets 8-10 carries — I expect even more — the rookie out of Rutgers should fly over this number.
Action Network projections have Pacheco for 39 rushing yards, a 4.4 percent edge at the current number.
Travis Kelce
Under 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
While Travis Kelce has gone over this number in three of his last four games, this is the perfect spot to fade the star tight end.
I keep circling back to the Chiefs being heavy favorites, which plays favorably into fading Kelce. This affair could very well be a 20-plus-point game by the third quarter with Kansas City opting to attack behind Pacheco and the ground game.
While Tennessee hasn’t been particularly good against tight ends, they’ve only allowed the Colts to go over this number (Week 4; Mo Alie-Cox). Through eight weeks, Tennessee gives up five receptions for 58 yards per game.
Kelce is Kansas City's best receiver and that could lead to added attention on him. That opens the door for players like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to thrive, or even Kadarius Toney in his debut.
Our Action Network projections have Kelce at 64.1 receiving yards, a 4.7 percent edge toward his under. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense and in an expected blowout, I like the idea of fading Kelce.
He’ll also likely be one of the most bet players on the prop market, which always makes me feel better about taking an under on primetime.
The Parlay (+448)
- Under 46.5 (-128)
- Isiah Pacheco Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Travis Kelce Under 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
