Aside from nearly identical point spreads and some surprise teams making appearances, the story for today's NFL Conference Championship Weekend surrounds the weather — well, at least in one of the games.
While not as breezy as last week's forecast, today is still projected to be a windy one in Kansas City, and if history is any indication, bettors are going to want to keep an eye on that leading up to kickoff.
Odds and forecast as of Sunday at 12 p.m. ET. Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Titans vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast
AFC Championship goers, bundle up. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be just below the 20-degree mark and should fall to 19 degrees by 6 p.m. ET.
On top of that, double-digit wind speeds (10-12 mph) are now forecasted throughout the game, which will only add to the unpleasantness.
As for actual gameplay, though, it's not so much the cold temperature that should have a significant impact on scoring. In fact, the betting market has actually tended to overcorrect for cold temps in the past, opening up opportunities for bettors to profit on "cold overs."
What does significantly impact scoring is wind.
By increasing the difficulty of accurately moving the ball through the air, big passing plays are cut down, field goals are tougher to convert and, perhaps most importantly, teams tend to rely on the ground game, keeping the clock moving more than it normally would.
Even at closing numbers, games played in winds of 10-plus mph have hit the under at a 56% rate since 2003 on a sample of almost 900 games (494-388-10) according to Bet Labs.
This total is actually higher than the opening number despite the projected wind, as most books made an initial jump from 51 to 53 behind 56% of over bets.
With the continually updating forecast, books now sit at 52 or 51.5.
