Titans at Colts Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Colts -2
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Friday afternoon.
The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts sit one game behind the Houston Texans in the AFC South heading into Sunday's showdown. Running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill have anchored a surprising Titans offense while the Colts remain efficient behind one of the league's best offensive lines.
Our experts analyze every angle of this pivotal game, featuring the biggest mismatch as well as a staff pick.
Titans-Colts Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Titans
The Titans placed tight end Delanie Walker (ankle) on injured reserve, but he’s been a non-factor for most of the season. Their main injury to monitor is Henry (hamstring), who has been limited in practice, but so far there are no rumblings of him being in jeopardy of missing this game.
The Colts will be without running back Marlon Mack (hand) once again, and on Thursday, the Colts ruled out wide receiver T.Y.Hilton (calf) after suffering a setback. Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson should take over on 3-WR sets. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Run Defense
The biggest mismatch for any Titans opponent late in the season is always Henry. With defenses often injured and worn down, his physicality is the Titans’ biggest offensive weapon.
In his last 16 games dating back to last season, Henry has totaled 1,710 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He faces an Indianapolis that ranks only 19th in run defense, and just allowed over 4.0 yards per carry to Houston plodder Carlos Hyde and the under-utilized Duke Johnson.
Henry has been incredibly efficient over the past three weeks, finishing as the RB4, RB1 and RB3, respectively. He's also see an increase in passing game usage with six receptions over that span for a solid 55 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans' offensive line has improved throughout the season and is one of the league’s best in short-yardage situations. They rank second in power success, which measures how often a first down in achieved on third/fourth down with two or fewer yards to go (per Football Outsiders). The Titans are going to run the ball regardless of the Colts’ scheme, which has been very difficult to stop recently.
Per PlayerProfiler, Henry is third among running backs in juke rate and fourth overall in evaded tackles.
The Colts will enter this game without their best running back (Mack) and best wide receiver (Hilton), which will likely lead to a lower team total. This puts a greater emphasis on doing something few teams have been able to do late in the season: Stop Derrick Henry. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Colts -2.5
- Projected Total: 44.5
Expert Pick
Randle: Under 43.5
The Colts' offense will certainly struggle without their best running back (Mack), best wide receiver (Hilton) and best tight end (Eric Ebron) against a Titans defense that's allowed fewer than 20 points per game this season
Meanwhile, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has been very effective at limiting opposing quarterbacks throughout this year, limiting production for top signal-callers such as Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes at home (one touchdown) and Houston’s Deshaun Watson (two interceptions).
Tennessee’s offense has remained efficient despite Tannehill’s low pass volume. He will be challenged by an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
The Colts’ run defense has been strong all season, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards by opposing running backs. Even with Henry’s historic success against Indianapolis (over 200 total yards in his last two games against the Colts), this should project as a low-scoring game with both teams at 6-5 and battling for a playoff spot.
I’m taking the under here in a tough AFC South showdown. The Colts offensive injuries and the uncertainty of increased Tannehill pass volume should suppress scoring and likely keep both teams under 21 points.
