I didn't anticipate suggesting fades of a tight end on each team when looking for Titans vs. Jaguars player props, but here we are.
Using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's expert projections on Action Labs, I have highlighted two of the many edges for this winner-take-all AFC South matchup. For all the edges and to get the best props projections available, subscribe to Action Labs today.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The only key player on the Titans offense who was missing last week, but will return this week, is Derrick Henry. Otherwise, it appears the usual suspects got a normal amount of work.
With that, it was odd how little we saw of Okonkwo, who played just 25% of the Titans' offensive snaps. Okonkwo played 16 snaps and ran a route on eight of the 10 passing plays he was in on.
It’s odd because Okonkwo went over this total in seven straight games from Weeks 9-15. Then, his snap counts decreased from 60% to 46% to 25% in Weeks 16-17. His routes run rate remained over 80% in both those games, but the decrease in snaps is still concerning.
He was targeted on four of the eight routes he ran last week, which is encouraging since that’s the only action he’s seen with Joshua Dobbs under center. The Titans were playing from behind for most of that loss to the Cowboys, though, and this week’s matchup in Jacksonville might be tighter.
Koerner and Raybon’s consensus projection is 15.8 receiving yards, so there’s a noteworthy edge to the under on Okonkwo.
Evan Engram
Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Titans rank 18th in DVOA against tight ends, but a big reason it’s that low is because of what Engram did to them back in Week 14.
The former Giants tight end exploded for 11 catches, 162 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the Jaguars' win. It was by far the biggest day of Engram’s career.
So, here we are, four weeks later, with Engram’s receiving yards total more than 100 yards less than his production in the first matchup.
Pick: Evan Engram Under 52.5 Receiving Yards |
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That game against Tennessee was the first of three straight games that saw Engram go over this total, but he’s gone under in five of the Jaguars’ past eight. His targets have gone up and down throughout the season, going from one to 10 in Weeks 4 and 5, then from eight to two in Weeks 16 and 17.
Engram is not the kind of player a team game plans around — with all due respect to him and any family members reading this — but the Titans defense is experienced enough and well-coached to the point that it’s unlikely he explodes again.
The consensus projection on Engram from Koerner and Raybon is 42.8 yards, creating a clear edge for Engram’s under.
