Thursday Night Football looks fun this week.
Although the Packers have underperformed this season, Aaron Rodgers and company picked up a big win last Sunday against Dallas. Perhaps the Packers have turned the corner.
Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-3 and back in their rightful place atop the AFC South.
I have zero interest in a side of this game. However, I do have two player props that I project value on.
My favorite way to pick NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money on them in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Derrick Henry
Over/Under 99.5 rushing yards
Following a slow start, King Derrick Henry has ramped it up. He’s averaging 121.8 rush yards per game over his last six and has now snuck up to second in the NFL in rushing yards (923).
Per usual, Henry gets all the touches in this offense. The Titans are feeding him week-over-week, and it’s not a coincidence that it’s led to wins in six of the last seven games.
Image credit: @JonPGH
Henry has crushed the 100-plus rushing yard mark in five of his last six games. He fell short in his most recent game against the Broncos, but Denver is a tough defensive matchup, ranking above average in both rush EPA per play allowed and rush success rate allowed.
There’s a small myth floating around that Green Bay has a good defense. Green Bay has a good pass defense, but has been shredded on the ground.
The Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season and rank 30th in rush defense DVOA. Moreover, The Packers are among the bottom-five NFL teams in rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed.
Plus, opposing teams know this and have attacked that weakness. The Packers have allowed the sixth-most rush attempts per game and the fourth-most yards per carry.
As such, opposing running backs have eaten. The last six running backs Green Bay has faced have gone over their rushing yards total, including:
- Tony Pollard: 115 yards, 64.5 O/U
- Jamaal Williams: 81 yards, 51.5 O/U
- Devin Singletary: 67 yards, 51.5 O/U
- Brian Robinson: 73 yards, 58.5 O/U
- Antonio Gibson: 59 yards, 28.5 O/U
- Breece Hall: 116 yards, 62.5 O/U
Now, we’re getting the best running back in the league looking for a bounce-back game against a very exploitable defense.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Henry for a whopping 108 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football, providing us with a significant edge over this PrizePicks line.
Pick: Over 99.5 rush yards
Austin Hooper
Over/Under 22.5 receiving yards
Austin Hooper had a little bump in production over the last two games. He caught two balls against the Chiefs on three targets and five against the Broncos on seven targets, compiling 75 yards between the two.
But those are the only two games Hooper has eclipsed 20 receiving yards all season. He had stayed under this number in six straight games entering November.
I believe it’s time for some regression to the mean. The Action Labs Player Props Tool is calling for regression, too, projecting Hooper for just 18 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
The Packers should be a tough matchup for Hooper, too. As mentioned, Green Bay is an elite pass defense. The Packers rank top-10 in most advanced metrics while allowing the fewest pass attempts and second-fewest pass yards per game.
Part of that is because opposing offenses just run the ball against Green Bay, so the Packers avoid big passing totals on defense, and the clock consistently moves. But that type of game plan favors taking Hooper’s under, nonetheless.
In this game, we’re looking for the Titans to run the ball as much as possible with Henry, thus decreasing the number of available targets for Hooper, whose usage should regress toward early-season levels.
I bet Hooper has an excellent day blocking for Derrick Henry, but I doubt he’ll record many receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Under 22.5 receiving yards
