Last week was the first time our script was way off from the events of the game.
We were right that Cowboys-Vikings would be low-scoring, but had Minnesota as the offense that would click — not Dallas. Hats off to Cooper Rush for his phenomenal performance in his first-ever star, though.
Now, let’s get back on track and look for a handsome payout this week.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBets' $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Titans vs. Rams Odds
No matter where you look, the numbers all say the Rams have been fantastic this year. They have only one loss to the 7-1 Cardinals and six of LA's seven wins have come by more than a touchdown.
The offense looks much more dynamic with Matthew Stafford. Behind Jared Goff, the Rams needed a successful run game to set up play-action and make their offense dynamic. Now, Stafford gives them the ability to utilize more spread concepts and attack the whole field without the run game’s help.
Being able to play multiple ways has helped the offense claim the title of the top offense in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
Defensively, LA has followed a bend-but-don’t-break style. The Rams are ranked 23rd in yards allowed per drive heading into the week, but 10th in points allowed per drive. Their ability to answer the call in the most high-leverage situations is what has helped them keep offenses out of the end zone.
The Rams currently rank second at stopping teams on fourth down and fourth at stopping teams in the red zone. This defense also just added Von Miller at the trade deadline this week to make things even scarier.
While the Rams added talent to their roster, the Titans just lost their MVP in Derrick Henry. The star running back's ability to break any run for a touchdown gave Tennessee the confidence to feed him all game. His 219 carries on the season are 79 more carries than any other running back.
To replace Henry, Tennessee signed Adrian Peterson out of retirement. Peterson flashed some skills last year for Detroit, but at 36, it’s probably safe to say he won’t break any long touchdowns like Henry.
A weakened run game will mean more pressure on quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In his time with the Titans, Tannehill has graded as a top-five quarterback, per PFF. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that elite play without the defense being as concerned about the run.
Julio Jones and A.J. Brown will make Tannehill's life easier. However, one of those receivers will find life much more difficult as he matches up against Jalen Ramsey on each play.
For scripting this game, the biggest question is how a new-look Titans offense will hold up. They have talent at skill positions to be potent as a pass-heavy offense, but their offensive line ranks seventh-worst at pass blocking, according to PFF.
A struggling offensive line against an excellent defensive front that just got better will mean growing pains for the Titans' offense.
As for the Rams’ offense, this could be a game where — despite having Stafford — they do lean on the run. Per PFF, Tennessee is the second-best team in coverage but eighth-worst against the run. Fortunately for the Rams, they can utilize either the passing game or rushing game as both rank top-10 in DVOA.
Had all of the Titans' skill position players been healthy, this would be a game to look forward to. Unfortunately, our script has this leaning pretty far one-sided in favor of the Rams. Let’s pick our props for our parlay now.
The Parlay (+921)
- Matthew Stafford Under 298.5 Pass Yards (-115)
- Darrell Henderson to get 75+ Rushing Yards (-135)
- Under 50.5 (+110)
- Los Angeles Rams -9.5 (+110)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Titans vs. Rams
Matthew Stafford Under 298.5 Pass Yards (-115)
The Titans currently rank 24th in passing yards allowed per game but have played much better recently. In their two most recent games, neither the Chiefs nor the Colts threw for 298.5 yards.
Those teams may not have been as talented at passing as the Rams, but they also played with negative game scripts.
Our positive game script will allow LA to play more conservatively, and — unlike the Texans –the Titans have enough talent to force a few stops and keep the Rams from running up the scoreboard 38-0.
Darrell Henderson 75+ Rushing Yards (-135)
As stated above, the Titans do an excellent job in coverage but a terrible job against the run. Add in a positive game script, and the Rams’ leading rusher should have a field day.
I was tempted to take this up to 100+ yards until I saw Henderson has zero 100 yards games this season. However, he does have four games with 75+ yards in his past, so buying the extra safety was the smart thing to do.
Under 50.5 (+110) & Rams -9.5 (+110)
This is a risky move to play the under while laying so many points, but we needed to make a swing to get the total odds to a spot we like. This combo pick is essentially doubling down on the Titans’ offense struggling against the Rams.
Had Tennessee played a few games without Henry before this matchup, things might be different. That is not the case, though. Tannehill will be under pressure and has not had much experience playing with Brown and Jones together.
The Rams will be able to focus on slowing down the stud receivers and dare a 36-year-old Peterson to keep up with their high-flying offense. In a couple of weeks, when this offense is more settled, they would do a much better job against the Rams.
Unfortunately, they have short notice for a massive overhaul against an elite opponent on a standalone primetime game. That kind of turnaround just seems like too much.
