Titans vs. Ravens Odds
| Titans Odds | +3 |
| Ravens Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 32.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 11 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | NFL Network |
*Odds are according to FanDuel as of Thursday afternoon
The Baltimore Ravens are 20-0 straight up and 18-2 against the spread over their last 20 NFL preseason games.
That hasn't stopped sharp bettors from steaming their opponent tonight, though.
While the public remains firmly on the Ravens on account of their half-decade long success during these exhibition contests, wiseguys are all over the Titans, according to the Action Network's proprietary tracking data.
That data tracks bets, money wagered and real-time odds movement across all the major American sportsbooks.
Titans vs. Ravens Sharp Betting Pick
Those indications hold that while only 27% of the public is on the Titans' spread, 37% of the money is.
That means there's a swath of bettors who are putting down bigger amounts of cash on the Titans to cover tonight.
It's been enough to move the line from Titans +3.5 to its current mark of Titans +3.
That move is significant because it brings the spread down to the key number of 3.
From 2015 to 2019, more than 14% of games finished with a margin of exactly three points, by far the highest frequency out of any individual score.
We use 2015 as a starting point because that's when the extra-point distance was moved back to 33 yards.
And please note that the data below is just regular season games as opposed to preseason, but the value of 3 in any football wager should not be minimized.
2015 to 2019 NFL Margin of Victory Data
| Margin of Victory | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 3 | 14.43% |
| 7 | 9.89% |
| 6 | 7.25% |
| 14 | 5.74% |
| 10 | 4.61% |
| 1 | 4.31% |
| 5 | 4.31% |
| 2 | 4.23% |
| 4 | 4.15% |
| 8 | 4.08% |
| 17 | 2.87% |
| 16 | 2.79% |
| 11 | 2.42% |
| 13 | 2.42% |
| 18 | 2.34% |
| 20 | 2.19% |
| 12 | 1.66% |
| 15 | 1.66% |
| 9 | 1.51% |
| 19 | 0.98% |
| 0 | 0.38% |
So, the difference between a +3.5 line and a +3 line is, of course, substantial. On the aggregate, almost 15% of NFL regular season games land on exactly three points, showing the value of the hook in these scenarios.
That's exactly what the sharp bettors did.
They hammered the Titans at +3.5 and have cooled off since the line moved down to the key number of 3.
