We're going big with our Titans vs. Steelers PrizePicks plays, which feature two picks for players to exceed their totals on Thursday night. Use the PrizePicks Quickslips below to be directed straight to the app so you can make your pick.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
More Than 2.5 Receptions
For fantasy managers, Okonkwo has been a major letdown this season. Any hope of a breakout after promising underlying data last season has been dashed. He’s averaging just 6.9 yards per reception and has underwhelmed.
For this prop, though, Okonkwo has been great. He’s caught more than 2.5 passes it in five of seven games this season, including five of the Titans’ last six.
In Weeks 4 and 5, Okonkwo’s snap percentages dropped to 65% and 58%. That rate has increased to 73% and 72% over the past two weeks, though.
We obviously have a small sample size with Okonkwo playing with Will Levis, but last week was promising. The Titans TE was targeted five times and hauled in four catches for 23 yards (unimpressive but irrelevant for this prop).
Okonkwo has caught 67.7% of his targets this season. His average depth of target matches his reception average at 6.9, so it’s reasonable to believe that rate will stay the same or even increase. Catching four of the five targets he got from Levis is certainly promising, and his aDot in that game was only 6.5, which indicates his role will be more of the same.
Sean Koerner’s projections have Okonkwo pegged for 3.3 receptions, while Chris Raybon’s are at 3.4.
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Jaylen Warren
More Than 25.5 Rushing Yards
Warren has run for more than 25.5 yards four times this season. Those outings from in four straight games, a streak that was snapped in Week 8 against the Jaguars. The Steelers trailed pretty much the entire game, though, and attempted 43 passes between Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky. Warren and Najee Harris only got a combined 12 carries.
I’m expecting a more evenly matched game tonight, which will bring a more neutral game script that gives Warren’s total value.
Warren only had five carries last week, which was his lowest total since Week 1. Pittsburgh still found a way to get him the ball in the passing game with four catches for 19 yards.
Warren has gotten six or more carries five times, and he’s run for more than 25.5 yards in four of those games.
This season, Warren’s snap percentage has remained very consistent. He has played at least 40% of snaps in every game with a season high of 49% in Weeks 4, 5 and 8. He has played between 45%-49% of Steelers offensive snaps in each of the last five games.
Koerner has Warren projected for 30.8 rushing yards, while Raybon has him pegged for 31. The Titans’ run defense is impressive, but logic would say the Steelers will use Harris and Warren plenty on a short week with Pickett likely less than 100%.
