Titans vs. Vikings Odds
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The Vikings have struggled mightily in their two opening losses. They've been outscored, 71-45, and now face the undefeated Titans in a critical Week 3 matchup.
Can Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer avoid burying the team's playoff hopes as a result of an 0-3 start? I like the Vikings' chances.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are 2-0 but have narrowly escaped the first two games, defeating the Broncos and Jaguars by a combined five points.
Tennessee also enters this game with major injury concerns.
The Titans are without cornerback Adoree' Jackson (knee), while fellow cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (quad), Chris Jackson (hamstring) and Johnathan Joseph (calf/illness) are dealing with injuries.
They allowed Gardner Minshew to throw for 339 yards and three touchdowns in their narrow 33-30 home win last Sunday — the same quarterback who just had two turnovers and no touchdowns in Thursday night's 31-13 blowout loss at home to winless Miami.
Making the Titans' pass defense even worse is their 29th ranking in adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders).
On offense, the Titans will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee), though they center their offensive success around running back Derrick Henry, who is annually a slow starter in production terms. He's averaged just 3.8 yards per carry in the month of September over his career, and has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in both games this season.
The Tennessee kicking game inspires little confidence as well. Stephen Gostkowski is just 4-of-6 on extra points and 3-of-6 on field goals. And with only a 3-point spread, missed field goals are critical.
Minnesota Vikings
Per The Athletic's Chad Graff, Minnesota offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak was quoted on Thursday saying: "Our average (yards) per carry has been pretty good, we’re just not running it enough." Expect that statement to translate to running back Dalvin Cook again being the focal point of the offense.
Tennessee's run defense ranks only 22nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA, and allowed 5.2 yards per carry to Melvin Gordon and 6.4 yards per carry to James Robinson. Cook and backup Alexander Mattison should find success on the ground early and often.
The lack of a pass rush should also provide Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins with time to throw, which should open up his connection with wide receiver Adam Thielen. Since Cousins' arrival in 2018, Thielen has averaged 7.9 targets, 5.6 receptions, 0.7 touchdowns and 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game with Cousins in Minnesota. Thielen is a prime bounceback candidate after following his season-opening performance of six catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns with a three-reception, 31-yard performance last week.
The Minnesota passing attack also took a step forward with rookie Justin Jefferson contributing three receptions and 44 receiving yards last week.
The tight end duo of Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. should also take advantage of a Tennessee defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2020. The Titans have allowed a weekly average of seven receptions and 75 yards to the position.
Titans-Vikings Pick
Given the poor play of the Vikings this season, taking them as small underdog is a difficult play to accept. But as an 0-2 home dog playing against an overvalued and lucky Tennessee team, that's exactly what I'm going to do.
The defensive injuries for Tennessee, the absence of Brown and Henry's early-season struggles make the Vikings a live underdog and moneyline play. Zimmer will get Cook rolling on the ground and the Cousins-Thielen connection will return to form.
I'll take the Vikings +2.5 but would not feel comfortable taking it any lower.
PICK: Vikings +2.5
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