It was the day after the Super Bowl and one of the better pro prop bettors was finishing up tallying his wins and losses from the night before.
But before he left to fly back from New Jersey to home, the bettor saw that the DraftKings Sportsbook in the Resorts Casino was offering odds on Brady’s next destination.
With Brady’s Patriots having been eliminated in the Wild Card Round by the Tennessee Titans, the bettor had thought about where Brady would next go.
The Patriots were such a heavy favorite that they weren't worth a bet. The Chargers were tempting, but Brady, the bettor reasoned, needed a more primed-to-go team, and the Raiders figured to hang on to Derek Carr.
“The Buccaneers just made sense,” said the bettor, who goes by Mark and shared his 50-1 and 40-1 Brady-to-the-Bucs tickets on Twitter under the handle @edteach23. Those tickets shared include his $285,500 net haul from picking Lamar Jackson to win the MVP — the reason why his home an hour from West Palm Beach, Fla., on the water is now referred to as “Lamar-A-Lago.”
Can we make this happen already? (And play the season on schedule?) pic.twitter.com/YUYvL8V8eo
— Ed Teach (@edteach23) March 17, 2020
“The Bucs have solid players and Brady cares a lot about his legacy,” Mark said. “They have a coach in Bruce Arians, who, the like Brady, is there for his last hurrah. And I just loved that the Super Bowl is in Tampa Bay this year.”
The last note might be a little wishful thinking, considering that in the 54-year-history of the Super Bowl no host team has ever in played in the game.
But Mark just thought Tampa Bay at 50-1 was great odds for a spot that could conceivably be Brady’s destination.
So he walked up to the window and made a max bet of $500 at 50-1.
DraftKings accepted the bet and immediately dropped the odds to 40-1.
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Mark came back.
“I’d like to do another $500."
“You already max bet it,” the ticket-writer said.
“That was at 50-1,” he fired back. “This is at 40-1.”
Before he knew it, Mark had thrown down $1,000 on the Bucs to land Brady, which would profit $45,000.
I think both Brady and Arians need to win NOW. Aside from Vrabel, Arians is the best coach on a team that wants him. Godwin/Evans/OJ Howard/Brate/Rojo is a great supporting cast. Young, deep defense, full slate of picks, no state income tax. SB in TB next year, they push all in.
— Ed Teach (@edteach23) March 4, 2020
Mark flew home to Florida, but it wasn’t long before he called up his business partner in New Jersey. The message?
Buy Buccaneers futures.
At the Borgata, they made two bets: A $10,000 investment at 8-1 that the Buccaneers would win the NFC South and a $8,000 bet at 35-1 that the Buccaneers would win the NFC.
TB stands for "Tom Brady Buccaneers" on these tickets. IMO odds better than 50/50 he ends up in TB. Major rift in NE. Better weapons, more money, easier path to SB, being "wanted." I also think Brady would retire if he knew he was washed up, so Tampa is "live" if he signs. The… pic.twitter.com/Wta3KCP0or
— Ed Teach (@edteach23) March 16, 2020
Before they were done, they had bet at any place that had the Buccaneers at above 30/1 to make the Super Bowl and 60/1 to win it.
On Tuesday morning, Brady confirmed he was leaving New England and hours later, it was reported that, barring a snag, he would land in Tampa.
The celebration for Mark was muted, however. It’s because, as written, his ticket can’t be cashed … yet.
The terms of the ticket: “Tom Brady’s team for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL Regular Season.”
It doesn’t say “winner of the Tom Brady free agent sweepstakes.”
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With the 2020 season perhaps now in jeopardy with the COVID-19 pandemic putting the sports world on hold, would DraftKings call the bet “no action” if a season is postponed or isn't played at all?
“I really hope that if the season is delayed or canceled they’d still pay it,” Mark said. “The essence of the bet was ‘Where would Tom Brady play next?’ I didn’t think twice about the way it was worded, and the circumstances we’re in are unprecedented.”