For those of you who followed our coverage of Super Bowl 52, you may recall the thrill of cashing the Tom Brady Longest Rush Over 2 Yards (+150) prop when he gracefully galloped for six yards toward the end of the first half against Philadelphia.
Well, I've been asked multiple times if I am going back to the well for a third straight Super Bowl with Tom's track shoes (yes, I'm referring to the same quarterback who ran a 5.27 40-yard dash at the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine).
Obviously.
The prop is actually set a half yard higher at 2.5 yards for this Super Bowl, while only paying out a few cents more (+158).
Has the line movement zapped the value?
No, I actually still like Brady — who finally reached 1,000 career rushing yards this season — to eclipse that number.
If you haven't heard my argument or don't remember the details from last season, let's rehash the case.
The Prop: Tom Brady Longest Rush over 2.5 yards (+158)
In his illustrious playoff career, Brady has officially rushed the ball 98 times for 138 yards. That's good enough for a staggering 1.41 yards per carry, which hints at value on the under.
However, you must remove the times when Brady takes a knee to come up with a true average. Remember, I am not focusing on the total rushing yards prop of 1.5, which would include any kneel downs.
As you might expect, Brady has taken a lot of postseason knees. In total, he has done so 43 times for -48 yards (for those looking at the rushing props, Brady generally kneels for a loss of one yard; some QBs take 2-yard losses).
After you remove those meaningless 43 rushes, you will see that Brady has 55 true postseason rushing attempts for 186 yards. That equates to a knee-adjusted average of 3.38 yards per carry, which actually implies a bit of value on the over 2.5 yards from a true adjusted average perspective.
His kneel downs effectively decrease his official playoff rushing average by 58.3%. I can point to the same effect with his 2017, 2018 or cumulative career regular season stats, as illustrated by the chart below.
Now, if he doesn't run the ball, I lose the prop. Therefore, the second part of this analysis involves looking at the probability of him running the ball. Well, he has 55 career non-kneel down rushes in 39 postseason games for an average of 1.41 per game.
Even if I thought he had just a 75% chance of running at least once, over 2.5 yards would hold value — even at even money (I'm getting +158). And even if you focus solely on the past two seasons, excluding kneels, he rushed the ball in over 75% of the games in 2017 and 2018 — and had a true average of over 2.5 in both. I think this prop should be set at 3 even money.
If Brady can just sit in the pocket all day and throw the ball cleanly, he won't run the ball. And if the Patriots are rolling, he likely won't either. However, I see neither of those scenarios playing out.
I can see Brady needing to scramble out of trouble, potentially getting loose for 3+ yards when the pocket collapses from the outside (Fowler) or up the middle from Suh and Donald.
Yes, Tom Brady is getting up there in age. But don't forget when he juked Urlacher out of his jock. Or when he glided 15 yards in Super Bowl 51 against Atlanta.
He should also be more willing to take off in the last game of the season, especially at this point in his career.
I ultimately think Tom finds a way to fall forward for 3+ yards for us again this year. Therefore, while not a lock, I will take Brady's longest rush to be over 2.5 yards at +158.
If this prop doesn't tickle your fancy, take your pick from our epic 53 props for Super Bowl 53 article. Our entire Action Network staff contributed their favorite props with supporting analysis.
Good luck on whatever you decide to wager Sunday (unless you bet Brady's longest run under 2.5 Yards).
