Tom Brady is a popular bet — and a damn good one at that — since he has hit close to 60% against the spread during the regular season over 20-plus years.
Bettors hopping on the Brady Bandwagon in 2022 might already have some Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl futures locked (shop and browse all odds here) or itching to jump on the team weekly in standard markets once the regular season materializes.
However, don't over look a season-long future bet such as regular season win totals: Brady's teams have been absolute money.
Buccaneers 2022 Win Total
The Buccaneers win total for the upcoming season is 11.5, tied for the highest clip in the NFL along with the Bills and Packers (view all 32 teams here).
Unless a monster wave of respected money rolls in at Caesars, a vast majority of bettors will be rooting against Brady and the Bucs in 2022.
The shop reported 87.8% of Tampa Bay win total bets are on under 11.5, creating one of the most lopsided stances roughly one month out from the regular season.
Yet, if Brady does what he usually does, he'll upset a bunch of bankrolls by regular season's end.
Tom Brady Win Total History, Results
Brady-led teams are a glorious 16-2-2 to the regular season win total over since 2001, minus the injury-shortened campaign in 2008.
Brady's club hasn't gone under its preseason win total in more than a decade, and his gem of a resume also features a perfect 16-0 tear in 2007.
| Year | Win Total | Team Record | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 – NE | 6.5 | 11-5 | Over |
| 2002 – NE | 8 | 9-7 | Over |
| 2003 – NE | 8.5 | 14-2 | Over |
| 2004 – NE | 10.5 | 14-2 | Over |
| 2005 – NE | 11 | 10-6 | Under |
| 2006 – NE | 10.5 | 12-4 | Over |
| 2007 – NE | 11.5 | 16-0 | Over |
| 2009 – NE | 11.5 | 10-6 | Under |
| 2010 – NE | 9.5 | 14-2 | Over |
| 2011 – NE | 11.5 | 13-3 | Over |
| 2012 – NE | 12 | 12-4 | Push |
| 2013 – NE | 11 | 12-4 | Over |
| 2014 – NE | 10 | 12-4 | Over |
| 2015 – NE | 10.5 | 12-4 | Over |
| 2016 – NE | 10.5 | 14-2 | Over |
| 2017 – NE | 12.5 | 13-3 | Over |
| 2018 – NE | 11 | 11-5 | Push |
| 2019 – NE | 11 | 12-4 | Over |
| 2020 – TB | 9.5 | 11-5 | Over |
| 2021 – TB | 12.5 | 13-4 | Over |
Buccaneers Win Total Analysis
"Tampa Bay had the most volatile offseason of any team in the NFL.
Tom Brady retired, then unretired. Bruce Arians, Rob Gronkowski, and Ali Marpet retired. The Bucs signed two former Falcons wide receivers in Russell Gage and Julio Jones to help replace some of the available targets left behind by Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown.
All in all, the Buccaneers will remain a Super Bowl contender in 2022. However, they’re a team that could be due for some regression after going 6-0 in one-score games last season. I also think the loss of Marpet is bigger than people realize. He is the glue that held the offensive line together and whenever he has been out of the lineup the past couple seasons, Brady has struggled.
To make matters worse, C Ryan Jensen suffered a knee injury that could knock him out for a few months. The offensive line could be an issue, at least early in the season.
I’m not showing any value on either side of the Buccaneers win total so it’s a pass for me. However, they are a team I bet against early in the season as they could struggle out of the gates with a potentially weakened offensive line."
–Sean Koerner, Director of Predictive Analytics
