Travis Etienne Receptions
| Prop | Travis Etienne Over 2.5 Receptions (-113) |
| Matchup | Jaguars vs. Chiefs |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The NFL Divisional Round kicks off with the Jaguars heading to Arrowhead as 9.5-points underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. In a potential come-from-behind game script for Trevor Lawrence, I am looking at Travis Etienne’s receiving props for value today.
In his first full season, Etienne averaged 2.06 receptions per game, ran an average of 18.59 receiving routes and recorded at least three catches in eight of his 17 (47%) games.
Despite only having one catch in last week's Wild Card win over the Chargers, who rank 31st in targets versus opposing running backs (4.33), I was very impressed with Etienne's underlying involvement in the passing game.
According to Pro Football Focus, Etienne ran a season-high 40 routes on 52 of Lawrence's dropbacks, which doubled his season average. Etienne's backup, JaMychal Hasty, ran six passing routes but averaged 11.5 in the four previous weeks coming into this matchup. This information is very telling about Etienne's increased role and dominance in the backfield.
As for this matchup, the Chiefs rank fifth in quarterback pressure percentage (24.9%). Combine that with some inclement weather in the forecast, I expect a lot of check downs from Lawrence. In the Jags' Week 10 meeting against the Chiefs, Etienne ran on 28 passing routes, his second most of the season, and recorded three receptions.
Unlike the Chargers, the Chiefs allow the most receptions to running backs (6.29) and rank 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric vs. pass-catching running backs. Opposing running backs have totaled at least three catches in 17 of the 18 regular-season games against the Chiefs this season.
Assuming Etienne keeps running more than 30 routes, especially with a negative game script, I can easily see at least three catches out of the backfield, which leads me to bet the over on his prop today.
Pick: Travis Etienne Over 2.5 Receptions (-113) |
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