The two most prolific skill position players for Sunday Night Football's Chiefs vs. Chargers have two of the most popular NFL player prop bets. Go figure.
But the public is also extremely bullish on Kadarius Toney, although our models don't necessarily agree.
As we wrote about earlier, Toney's under on receiving yards is actually one of the top five most popular props on the night. That's on account of public action that has ballooned that particular prop.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Chiefs vs. Chargers Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Travis Kelce to score an anytime touchdown (-135)
- Austin Ekeler to score an anytime touchdown (-160)
- Kadarius Toney to score an anytime touchdown (+155)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Sunday afternoon.
Our premier data analytics guru Nick Giffen assessed the value on all these props and found the most fair value on Toney to score a TD.
Toney's odds of +155 at PointsBet are better than his expected line of +150, giving that line a roughly 0.8% betting edge. So, while our models aren't exactly bullish on Toney to put up 54 or more receiving yards, his TD prop is priced at a small discount.
Meanwhile, Kelce and Ekeler — the two most expensive anytime TD recipients — don't have much value rolling with their props.
Kelce's fair odds are -115, so his price at -135 means you're losing about 4% in value.
Ekeler's -160 line should be closer to -135. That difference is about 4% in vig, too.
