Travis Kelce Player Props
Even at 33 years old, Travis Kelce has been the most dynamic skill player for the Kansas City Chiefs this season. No matter what defenses have thrown the Chiefs’ way, Kelce still usually finds a way to make big plays.
The veteran put up his seventh straight 1,000+ yard season in 2022, extending his NFL record for the most by a tight end both overall and consecutively. This season, Kelce had a career-high 110 receptions, amassed 1,338 yards and grabbed 12 touchdowns.
In the playoffs, he's been on another level, tallying 21 catches for 176 yards and three touchdowns in two games. Regardless of the Philadelphia Eagles' game plan in Super Bowl 57, I expect Kelce to be a focal point for Kansas City's offense.
Betting Picks
The Eagles’ primary strength on defense is their pass rush, particularly around the edge. Meanwhile, the tackles have been the weakness of Kansas City’s offensive line for much of the season. I think Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will look to have extra blockers available whenever possible to help his tackles and give Patrick Mahomes time to operate.
This strategy would also attack another strength of the Eagles defense. Whenever Avonte Maddox has played in the slot this year, the Eagles have thrived as the best team in the league at defending that position.
Kelce has played 44% of his snaps in the slot this year, 29% out wide and 26% inline. Having Maddox back gives the Eagles strength in their base and nickel alignments as C.J. Gardner-Johnson becomes free to help on the back end.
With both of these factors working against Kansas City, look for the Chiefs to deploy heavier personnel to try to get Philadelphia out of its nickel defense. As a result, Kansas City will try to scheme up opportunities for Kelce to match up against linebackers, where he should have an advantage.
Because of this heavier personnel, Kelce may see a lot of work in the pass game, but could also see a heavier volume of short passes, like he did against Jacksonville. Kelce has had at least seven targets in 18-of-19 games this season. I don’t see anyone on the Eagles who can take Kelce out of this game, so I expect the All-Pro tight end to get his.
Additionally, the health of the Chiefs roster could come into play. Mahomes’ ankle injury, combined with the Eagles' pass rush, could cause more balls to be fed to Kelce rather than down the field. The health of the Chiefs battered receiving corps may also direct extra targets Kelce's way.
You can find Kelce’s total receptions prop at either 6.5 or 7.5 depending on the book. I like the over 6.5 receptions at -160 on DraftKings, but at other books you can get over 7.5 at plus money at FanDuel if you are willing to risk it on the extra catch. Either way, I think Kelce is primed to see a lot of balls heading his way.
Pick: Over 6.5 Receptions (-160) | Bet to -165
Alt. Pick: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+108) |
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