Travis Kelce, Jerick McKinnon and Christian Kirk are the most popular NFL player prop bets for Saturday's divisional round matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs.
Our premier data analytics expert, Sean Koerner, assessed whether Kelce, McKinnon or Kirk's most popular picks are valuable. These prop bets target the anytime touchdown marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Travis Kelce to score a TD anytime (-140)
- Jerick McKinnon to score a TD anytime (-130)
- Christian Kirk to score a TD anytime (+190)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
The most valuable prop on the public's list is on Christian Kirk to score on Saturday, according to Koerner.
The Jaguars' top receiver's fair value line should be closer to +180. The best market price is at PointsBet at +190, which gives this line a roughly 1.2% betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 1.2% discount relative to its market price.
Another way to think about it: you're accumulating 1.2% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
The other two picks don't have fair market prices — especially so for McKinnon's prop.
The Chiefs running back is expected to get into the end zone 40% of the time. Translated to betting odds, that's +150. And yet, the market has overwhelmingly priced his odds at minus-money. His market-best price of +120 at Caesars still requires you to dole out a 5.5% premium.
And Kelce's odds should be closer to -125. The best price is with BetMGM at -135.
