Super Bowl 55 brings with it a whole host of player prop opportunities, which I plan to exploit with full enthusiasm as we approach kickoff.
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Here’s my breakdown of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and the props of his that I plan to bet.
Travis Kelce Prop Bets
Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Over 94.5 Yards Receiving
In case you are unaware, I am a donkey. And as a full-fledged ass, I am highly inclined to bet the over on every Kelce prop I see.
In the regular season, he set an NFL record for all tight ends with 1,416 yards receiving — in only 15 games — and as good as Kelce was for the entirety of the season, he was even better in the second half.
For Kelce's 17 games this year (including postseason), he has a median of 98 yards, but since Week 8 — when quarterback Patrick Mahomes started targeting him at a higher frequency of drop backs — Kelce has a median of 113.5 yards.
For the season, Kelce's yardage prop over is 12-5. Since Week 8, it's 8-2.
On the one hand, Kelce had "only" eight targets and 82 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
On the other, those eight targets were the fewest he has seen in any game since Week 8. And in the regular season the Bucs were most vulnerable against tight ends, ranking No. 25 with an 11.6% pass-defense DVOA against the position (per Football Outsiders).
This is a great matchup for Kelce, who is 21-227-3 on 25 targets in two playoff games this year.
It's not hard to imagine him smashing.
- Action: Over 96.5 (-115) at PointsBet
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Over 7.5 Receptions
At most books, this line is 8.5, which I think is fair. I have it projected for 8.7, and since Week 8, Kelce has averaged 8.6 receptions per game.
But at FanDuel this line is 7.5, and I'm betting that for sure.
Since Week 8, Kelce has had 10-plus targets in every game but one, and over that stretch his receptions prop over is 9-1.
In his past 10 games, Kelce has failed to amass eight-plus receptions just once.
With his sheer target volume — Kelce has a median of 12 targets since Week 8 — he has a strong chance of hitting the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (-146) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-180)
Over 24.5 DraftKings Points
This is an outrageously high fantasy points total, but it's fair. In fact, it's right in line with the projection Sean Koerner has for Kelce in our FantasyLabs Models.
That said, I still think it's too low.
For the season, Kelce has a median of 24.0 DraftKings points, and in Week 12 against the Bucs, he had just 16.2 DraftKings points — but I don't think those numbers matter.
Since Week 8, when Kelce first saw an uptick in target volume, he has a scorching mean of 27.8 DraftKings points and median of 28.4. Over that 10-game stretch, Kelce has gone over 24.5 DraftKings points seven times, and his 16.2 points against the Bucs marked his low point.
I don't expect Kelce to have a "bottom percentile" performance in the Super Bowl.
- Action: Over 24.5 (-112) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 25.5 (-112)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
