Travis Kelce is no stranger to the Super Bowl.
In four appearances, Kelce has 31 receptions for 350 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging 7.4 receptions and 87.5 yards per Super Bowl appearance.
While Kelce’s role in the Chiefs offense has changed, he’s a sure thing to play a big role in the outcome of Super Bowl 59. Here’s how you should go about betting on him.
Travis Kelce Player Props
It’s obvious that Travis Kelce is no longer the player he was five years ago when he was notching 1,000-yard season after 1,000-yard season. Kelce hasn’t reached that mark in either of the last two years.
He can still turn it on when necessary, though.
Kelce is usually a big-game performer in the playoffs, although he wasn’t needed very often in the Chiefs’ AFC Championship Game win over the Bills. Kelce only had two catches for 19 yards on four targets, although he won’t complain since Kansas City won.
In his two previous games, Kelce had turned back the clock. He had eight receptions on 11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers on Christmas, and he went for seven grabs on eight targets for 117 yards and a TD against the Texans in the Divisional Round.
Kelce averaged a career-low 8.5 yards per reception this season. He’s no longer a big downfield threat, but he’s still more than capable of making plays after the catch.
With that and his 6.2 yards per target average, yardage is a tough market to back Kelce’s over. Here are Sean Koerner’s projections for Sunday’s game followed by my pick recommendation.
| Market | Total (Odds) | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 6.5 (+123 / -154) | 6.5 |
| Receiving Yards | 61.5 (-109 / -112) | 59.2 |
Prediction
If you're looking for a way to bet on Kelce, I'd go receptions. We're getting a nice plus-money number, and the matchup may lean toward Kelce being heavily involved.
The Eagles have three top cornerbacks in veteran Darius Slay and rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. They will give the Chiefs receivers fits on the outside.
We just saw Zach Ertz go for 11 catches for 104 yards in the NFC Championship Game, in which Jayden Daniels wasn't able to hit many big plays on the outside. The focus in the passing game was through the middle.
Also, the Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The short-passing game might become an extension of the run, which would lead to a starring role for Kelce.
As long as we're getting +110 or higher on the over, I'm betting on Kelce to be heavily involved in his fifth Super Bowl appearance.
