Now that the NFL free agency market is starting to settle down, it's time to take a serious look at the 2020 NFL draft betting market, and there's one player in particular who has my eye: Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There's no guarantee I have similar success this year, but here's how I'm betting on Tagovailoa.
Odds as of Tuesday, Mar. 17, and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
2020 NFL Draft: Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position
- Over 2.5: -300
- Under 2.5: +225
I love Tagovailoa, and he entered the 2019 college football season as the presumed No. 1 pick of the 2020 NFL draft — but he's now dealing with a serious hip injury that throws into question his professional future.
If the 2020 class were devoid of elite talent, it would be more reasonable for a team to take the risk with Tagovailoa, but there's no need for a team to select him with a top-two pick when prospects as strong as Louisiana State quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State edge defender Chase Young are available.
Burrow (-2200) and Young (-330) are the prohibitive favorites to be selected Nos. 1-2.
When it comes to projecting the NFL draft, I take a "wisdom of the crowds" approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible.
I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
And in only two mocks have I seen Tagovailoa selected before No. 5.
At -300, he has a 75% implied probability of hitting the over, but his true odds are probably closer to 85%. Maybe even 90%.
My Pick for Tua Tagovailoa
Over 2.5: One unit. Limit: -500.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Tua Tagovailoa Draft Position
- Over 3.5: +163
- Under 3.5: -200
At DraftKings, there's a line of 3.5 for Tagovailoa, and with the juice to the under, the market is indicating that it expects him to be drafted No. 3 overall.
It's notable that in not one draft I've seen has Tagovailoa been No. 3.
The Lions hold the pick, and while they might trade it or be tempted to draft Tagovailoa and develop him behind long-time starter Matthew Stafford, I think they're likely to keep the pick and use it to draft a player they hope will be a difference-making defender.
The Lions have a defense-focused head coach in Matt Patricia, and no immediate need at quarterback. I expect Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah or Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons to go No. 3 to the Lions.
Ultimately, I'm willing to bet that a team won't use a top-three pick on a quarterback who is recovering from a significant injury and unable to work out for scouts before the draft.
My Pick for Tua Tagovailoa
Over 3.5: One unit. Limit: -150.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.
