Tua Tagovailoa Under 250.5 Passing Yards
Dolphins vs. Jets | 3 p.m. ET
Say what you will about the Jets' underwhelming offense, but their elite defense has undoubtedly been the better group of talent that has carried them throughout the season.
Tua Tagovailoa averages 293.4 yards per game, but even with a depressed line, I see value in him going under his passing yards prop against the league's best pass coverage.
The Jets rank fifth in defensive DVOA by FTNNetwork, are in the top five in opponent passing yards (178.7) per game and have allowed three of the last 14 quarterbacks they've faced to throw for 250 or more passing yards in MetLife since 2022.
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Of course, the biggest key will be containing Tagovailoa's favorite weapon, Tyreek Hill, who accounts for 39% of his quarterback's production and averages 112.2 yards per game. Gang Green has recently been great at muting WR1s, ranking seventh in DVOA. In the 10 games where the Cheetah fails to top 90 yards (His current prop line is 75.5 receiving yards), Tua averages 235 pass yards when the two play together.
Jaylen Waddle is also a threat, but the Jets boast the best DOVA defense against opponent WR2s as well. Backed by their third-ranked pressure-rate unit, the Jets can also give Tua less decision-making for developed routes. According to Rich Hribar, Tagovailoa has a 36.7% lower completion rate against pressure than when kept clean, making it the largest discrepancy for any quarterback in the league.
Plus, it will be easier to run against the Jets with defensive tackle Al Woods out for the season. Especially as heavy favorites, Tagovailoa can also chew the clock with Mostert and short throws to run time of possession down the stretch. In what should be an ugly game all around, I have a hard time seeing Tua rack up enough yards to surpass his 250.5 pass yards prop today.
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