Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite NFL player props for Tuesday night. He has a 500-394-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
An NFL Tuesday slate? Must be Christmas.
Seahawks vs. Rams and Washington Football Team vs. Eagles offer plenty of prop opportunities, so I broke down four I'm targeting below.
NFL Props: Seahawks vs. Rams
Odell Beckham Over 3.5 receptions (-128)
Beckham will only become more involved in the Rams offense as we go forward. Last week, he ran a route on 91% of Stafford's dropbacks and saw his aDot fall to 6.2.
As a result, he posted a 6/77/1 line, and I think the Rams will continue to use him underneath with Tyler Higbee set to miss his second-straight game.
I'm projecting him closer to 4.4 receptions and think he has a very high floor in this market. I would bet this up to -155.
Pick: Over 3.5 catches at FanDuel
D.K. Metcalf Under 74.5 Rec Yards (-110)
It looks like the Seahawks will be without Tyler Lockett tonight, who remains on the COVID list. D.K. Metcalf should see a few extra targets, as a result. However, the Rams defense will also be able to put extra resources into slowing him down.
Russell Wilson will likely lean on Dee Eskridge, Freddie Swain, and Gerald Everett if the Rams have two or more defenders on Metcalf. We have seen Wilson (frustratingly) shy away from Metcalf at times this year, tonight could be similar. I am projecting Metcalf closer to 66.5 yards and would bet this down to 71.5.
Pick: Under 74.5 receiving yards at FanDuel
NFL Props: WFT vs. Eagles
Antonio Gibson Under 65.5 Rush Yards (-110)
The Football Team has been hit hard by COVID on both offense/defense, forcing this game to Tuesday night. I think they will have a hard time moving the ball with Garrett Gilbert under center, especially considering they will be without two offensive linemen, including Brandon Scherff, who is the leader of this o-line.
Gibson's rushing upside is hurt by the potential negative game script and o-line issues. I think they use him dump-offs to him as a pass-catcher as an extension of the run game. I'm projecting him closer to 57.5 and would bet this down to 63.5.
Pick: Under 65.5 rushing yards at FanDuel
DeVonta Smith Under 3.5 Rec (+110)
The Football Team's offense is unlikely to force the Eagles into a pass-heavy situation. I think the Eagles lean on their run game & defense in this matchup to get the win.
Therefore, I believe Smith offers quite a bit of value in this market. I'm projecting him closer to 3.1 receptions and 43 receiving yards. Smith is a dynamic downfield pass catcher, which means I rather take my chances attacking his receptions prop than his yardage one. I would bet this down to -120.
Pick: Under 3.5 receptions at FanDuel
