Sunday is the last day with multiple football games until August, so why not have some extra fun with player props on Championship Sunday? I'm not usually a props bettor, but I dabble in the biggest games.
Below are my two favorite NFL player props for Bengals-Chiefs and 49ers-Rams — one for each game — that I also shared on the Action Network Podcast. For what it's worth, our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner's projections also support with each pick (find those here).
Tyler Boyd Over 38.5 Rec Yards
3 p.m. ET kickoff | More on Bengals-Chiefs
I don't think Tyler Boyd is getting enough respect in the props market for his receiving yards for this weekend. My theory is that it's primarily due to two underwhelming performances in the postseason so far with six combined catches on eight targets for 43 yards. But in 16 regular-season games, he averaged 51.75 receiving yards and had at least 39 yards in nine games.
Additionally, I think the Chiefs will pay extra attention to Ja'Marr Chase after he caught 11 balls for 266 yards and three touchdowns in their regular-season meeting.
Last week, the Chiefs took away Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis benefited in a major way. Similarly, Boyd and/or Tee Higgins could end up getting many more looks. And I'd rather side with Boyd, whose number I see more value in, especially considering all three wideouts will likely play a similar amount of snaps.
Lastly, there's a much higher chance the Bengals are playing from behind this round than in their first two postseason games. That means the game script could help this prop as well.
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 2.5 Rush Yards
6:40 p.m. ET kickoff | More on 49ers-Rams
If you look at Jimmy G's season-long statistics, this prop might not look that appealing to you. In 15 regular-season games, he had 38 rushing attempts for 51 yards. That translates to a per-game average of approximately 2.5 carries for 3.4 yards.
However, 11 of those attempts (for 20 yards) came in one game against the Eagles. If you remove that anomaly, he averaged 2.2 rushing yards per game. That's actually lower than this prop total, but it's not the reason I'm betting it.
I didn't even mention the 49ers' first two postseason games in which Jimmy G ran one total time for zero yards. That's a sample size of only two games, but it makes logical sense given some of his injury concerns. I doubt he or the team want him scrambling much at all.
Plus, in this particular matchup, he should see a lot of zone looks from the Rams defense. That means defenders will generally have their eyes on him unlike in man coverage when a quarterback can periodically break a long run by getting across the line of scrimmage when defenders' backs are turned to the quarterback and/or they are trailing receivers on deeper routes.
There's also a chance for kneel downs to subtract from his total at the end of the half or game.
Look, this is a terrible bet to make from an entertainment perspective — one broken run one time can ruin it — but I think this number should actually be 1.5 and juiced to the under. There's a decent chance he ends with zero rushing yards.
