Super Bowl 55 brings with it a whole host of player prop opportunities, which I plan to exploit with full enthusiasm as we approach kickoff.
To leverage our projections and sort through all the player props available at different sportsbooks, use our new Props Tool at Action Labs.
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Here's my breakdown of Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the props of his that I plan to bet.
Tyreek Hill Prop Bets
Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Over 92.5 Yards Receiving
Betting the over on a big-name player is an embarrassingly square thing to do — but I can't help myself with Hill. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, I do not believe that the Buccaneers have a cornerback who can hang with the speedy playmaker.
First of all, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid constantly moves his receivers around the field, which means that it will be hard for the Bucs to scheme to take away Hill.
On top of that, regardless of where he lines up he always has the potential to go off.
In the Super Bowl last year, Hill was 9-105-0 receiving on 16 targets. In two playoff games this year, he is 17-282-0 on 21 targets. And against the Bucs in Week 12, he was a career-best 13-269-3 on 15 targets.
A three-time All-Pro, Hill is one of the best receivers in the league. With his speed and ability to line up on the perimeter and in the slot, Hill is an incredibly difficult player to scheme against for opposing defenses.
And in the slot, where I expect him to line up most, Hill has a real edge over cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is the most vulnerable of the three starting corners for the Bucs. For his career, he has allowed a 74.3% catch rate, and this year in particular he has yielded 9.0 yards per target and seven touchdowns.
Against Murphy-Bunting, Hill should put up stats.
- Action: Over 92.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Over 7.5 Receptions
In the Super Bowl last year, Hill had nine receptions. In the Divisional Round, he had eight. In the AFC Championship, he had nine.
And in Week 12 against the Bucs, he had a career-high 13 receptions.
Since Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.7 targets per game.
With this data, it's hard for me not to bet the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (+110) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-110)
Over 22.5 DraftKings Points
Hill started the season slowly, but since Week 8 he has a mean of 27.4 DraftKings points and median of 26.0.
In that 10-game stretch, he has had fewer than 22.5 DraftKings points just thrice. And I need hardly say that in Week 12 against the Bucs, Hill had a career-high 60.9 DraftKings points.
If you look at our FantasyLabs Models, you'll see that Sean Koerner — for my money, the best projections creator in the industry — is currently projecting Hill for 20.8 DraftKings points in Super Bowl 55.
I almost never go against Koerner's projections, but in this instance, I must.
- Action: Over 22.5 (+100) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 23.5 (-112)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
