The Kansas City Chiefs, sitting at a perfect 9-0, face an unusual situation this week: despite their spotless record, they're underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo is anywhere from a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite as of Tuesday night — our NFL odds comparison page has the Bills -1.5 at FanDuel and -2.5 at BetMGM.
This marks only the second time since 1990 and the fourth time ever that a team with a 9-0 record or better enters a game as the underdog, should the Chiefs remain a 'dog until Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds: How Rare is This?
The three instances:
- The 2013 Chiefs, who were 9-0 before going up against the Peyton-Manning led Denver Broncos. In that game, the Broncos, favored by 7.5 points, handed Kansas City their first loss with a 27-17 win at home.
- In 1985, the 10-0 Chicago Bears were 1.5-point underdogs on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears defied the odds and secured a dominant 44-0 victory in Dallas and en route to a one-loss season and Super Bowl victory.
- In 1969, the Los Angeles Rams entered a game with an 11-0 record but were 1-point underdogs against the 10-1 MinnesotaVikings. That game was a close contest, with the Vikings edging out a 20-13 win in Los Angeles.
The Chiefs are the 34th team ever to start 9-0 (including teams like the 1922 Canton Bulldogs, well before the NFL/AFL merger). They're the first time to start with 9+ wins since the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers started 11-0.
Patrick Mahomes has also been nails as an underdog under any circumstance at 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog — the best mark of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, according to our Bet Labs data.
The rest of the NFL has won about 32% of games straight up as an underdog since 2000.
Mahomes is 4-3 ATS against Josh Allen in his career, but just 1-3 ATS in the regular season.
