The total for Thursday night’s Bills vs. Dolphins game opened at 51.5 and closed at 48.5. The over appeared destined to hit as Buffalo led 24-10 at the half. They extended that lead to 31-10 after a pick-six just over five minutes into the second half. Miami drove the ball down to Buffalo’s six-yard line on the next drive and appeared primed to score.
However, that pick-six proved to be the last points on the night.
Neither team scored over the final 24:33 of the game as it ended with 41 total points. The result was a blow to the majority of the public as 72% of all bets took the over. However, it had only 30% of the handle as the big money backed the under.
According to Action Network's Director of Research Evan Abrams, this is the first game since 2021 that the full game failed to go over when at least 34 points were scored in the first half. Additionally, the over had been 32-3 in the last decade. This was also the first night game since 2005 that the over failed to hit after that many points were scored over the first 30 minutes.
So, how did it all go down?
Another scary concussion to Tua Tagovailoa played a major part.
Tagovailoa suffered the injury running for a six-yard gain on 4th-and-4 that moved the ball to Buffalo’s six-yard line. He lowered his shoulder rather than sliding and took a hard hit from the Bills’ Damar Hamlin. Skylar Thompson took over in a goal-to-go situation, but Miami couldn’t punch it in the end zone. The Dolphins were stuffed trying to run the ball on the first two downs before Thompson fired an incomplete pass on third and was sacked by Von Miller on fourth.
Buffalo took over in Miami territory a few drives later and only needed a few yards to get into field goal range. Josh Allen drove them to the Dolphins' 27-yard line, but Tyler Bass missed a 45-yard field goal wide left.
The over was still in play as the Dolphins needed a touchdown and two-point conversion to cash it. Miami made it down to Buffalo’s 11-yard line with just over two minutes to go in the game, but Thompson’s fourth-down pass into the end zone for Robbie Chosen fell incomplete, turning the ball back over the Bills.
The under hitting in primetime continues a trend that's been quite profitable over the years. It’s hit at a 59% rate dating back to 2019, cashing by a point and a half. The other primetime games this week are between the Bears and Texans on Sunday Night Football and Falcons vs. Eagles on Monday Night Football. The total for Sunday’s game is 45.5 as of Thursday while the total for Monday is 47.
