| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Week 12 of the NFL season gave us a bit of everything — blowouts, late missed field goals, overtime thrillers — and it ends tonight with an NFC North matchup between the Vikings and Bears on Monday Night Football. If the Vikings manage to cover the spread as favorites, they will make this the most successful week for betting favorites in more than 50 years.
According to Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, 13 or more favorites have never covered in a single week during the Super Bowl era. Favorites are 12-3 against the spread in Week 12 — the Packers, Giants and Falcons are the only 'dogs to cover and each team also won outright. Even if the Vikings get upset, this is the first week with 12 or more favorites covering the spread since Week 12 of 2017.
The Vikings certainly have motivation on their side as they sit in sixth place in the NFC playoff standings entering tonight's divisional matchup. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation for the Vikings since Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Dobbs will need to shake a nagging betting trend in his career to come away with a win and potentially cover against the Bears.
Dobbs has started three night games in his career, two with Titans and one with the Vikings. Dobbs is 0-3, but his team has been the underdog in each matchup.
Joshua Dobbs' Record in Night Games
2023: at Broncos, +2.5 = L, 21-20
2023: at Jaguars, +6.5 = L, 20-16
2022: vs. Cowboys, +13.5 = L, 27-13
Teams playing at night for a second straight game, after losing the first game, are just 45-73 SU (38.1%).
The upside? The Vikings are facing the Bears, who struggle on the road (2-13 outright in their past 15 road games) and can't seem to beat teams in their own division.
Since 2019, the Bears are 6-20-1 ATS against the Lions, Packers and Vikings. They've been the least profitable team in the NFL against their own division, losing a $100 bettor $1,424 in that span. In the Justin Fields era, the Bears are just 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS against the NFC North.
Despite Chicago's awful streak, betting has been relatively close based on ticket count as 46% of spread bets are on the Bears and. We'll see if the Vikings can make betting history Monday.
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