All signs pointed toward Sam Darnold starting for the Vikings to open the season — over 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy — but that notion was solidified on Wednesday after ESPN reported McCarthy underwent season-ending surgery on his torn meniscus.
Darnold had started with the first team throughout training camp and started Saturday's preseason game, in which McCarthy got injured.
Week 1 will be the former No. 3 overall pick's first season-opening start since 2021 — and he's been one of the worst quarterbacks to bet on whenever he's taken the field.
Since he entered the league in 2018, Darnold is the fourth-worst quarterback in the NFL against the spread (ATS) with a 22-33-1 (40%) record. If you had bet $1,000 on every Darnold-led point spread, you'd be down $12,060.
The only quarterbacks worse over that span are Carson Wentz, Derek Carr and Matt Ryan.
This data is courtesy of the Action Network's data guru Evan Abrams.
Least profitable QBs against the spread since Darnold was drafted in 2018 ⤵️ https://t.co/DHdrappCEkpic.twitter.com/J8EH6OP2JU
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) August 14, 2024
Of course, there are extenuating factors at play here. The market could have been mispricing Darnold-led teams. Bad luck plays a part. And quarterbacks only control one side of the ball.
Still, it's one data point in a sea of literature that points toward Darnold systemically underperforming expectations throughout his career.
