Vikings-Texans Trade: NFL Draft, Quarterback & Betting Implications

The first big trade of the 2024 NFL Draft cycle is in the books, and the Minnesota Vikings are on the move.

The Vikings made a trade up to No. 23 to grab a second first-round pick to pair with No. 11, while the Texans moved down. Officially, the Vikings get picks 23 and 232 in return for 42, 188 and a 2025 second-round pick.

Not much needs to be said about the Texans here. Houston already traded its own first rounder to move up for Will Anderson last year. This was an extra pick from the Deshaun Watson trade — the Texans are effectively recouping some of the value they sacrificed moving up for the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Minnesota is the big story because this feels very much like the first domino, not the last one.

The Vikings need a quarterback.

Minnesota said goodbye to Kirk Cousins this week as the veteran signed with the Falcons; the Vikings moved on by signing Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal. Darnold is a stop-gap gamble but he was never the long-term answer, and rumors have swirled for weeks that Minnesota is targeting Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in the draft. Sure enough, the Vikings are +105 to take McCarthy at FanDuel (as all odds below).

This reads like a trade that could be about more than McCarthy, though. It's reminiscent of the Eagles in 2016, when they made smallish trades weeks before the draft to move up, and then used their new pick to move up again all the way to No. 2 for the quarterback they wanted — Carson Wentz.

It's possible the Vikings are just getting some ammunition to move up for McCarthy, but it seems more likely they're targeting a move up to No. 2 or 3 for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels (or Caleb Williams, if he shockingly falls past the Bears).

So what would that look like? Well, it probably starts with packaging Nos. 11 and 23.

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There are a few reputable trade charts available that approximate draft pick value. The classic Jimmy Johnson chart rates those Vikings picks as worth 1,250 and 760 points, respectively, totaling 2,010. That would allow the Vikings to move up to the No. 4 spot (1,800) but not quite No. 3 (2,200), so Minnesota likely has to add another pick or two to get into the top three.

I prefer the more modern Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart, which doesn't see quite as steep of a drop-off past the top few picks now that we know how valuable depth is and how difficult it is to evaluate at the top. That chart has Nos. 11 and 23 as worth 1,785 and 1,411 points, respectively, totaling 3,196. According to Fitzgerald-Spielberger, the Vikings have enough ammo to get all the way to No. 1 (3,000) and more than enough to get to No. 2 (2,649) or No. 3 (2,443).

Not all drafts are equal, and suffice to say the Vikings are almost certainly not going to get all the way to No. 1. They're not going to steal Caleb Williams away from a division rival.

This does look like the spot you'd move to if you were targeting No. 2 or 3 though. I suspect Minnesota ends up having to add another middle pick or two to the package. That 2016 Eagles trade-up ended up including the No. 8 pick, a future first — we're about equal to Minnesota's 11 + 23 package now — but also a second-, third- and fourth-round pick.

It costs a premium to get into those top few spots, and the Vikings don't have a second- or third-round pick anymore this year — they just traded their second and gave their up third for T.J. Hockenson. Minnesota has a pair of fours, but a move up into the top three could theoretically leave the Vikings without another pick until Day Three of the draft in the late fourth round, and already shorthanded next season.

Still, that's the price you pay if you want a potential franchise quarterback, and that's the move it looks like this team is eyeing after finally moving on from Cousins.

Cousins is about raising a team's floor, while also seeming to cap its ceiling. This is a Minnesota choice to exchange floor for ceiling, taking on huge risk to do so. The Vikings are taking a swing.

So who would the Vikings trade with? Likely Washington at No. 2 or New England at No. 3.

Washington already has picks 2, 36, 40, 67, 78 and 100 over the first three rounds. The Commanders spent free agency adding quantity over quality to round out their roster, so trading No. 2 for a handful of picks would be a similar move and give them seven or eight top-100 picks to add to a blank-slate roster.

But Washington also traded away Sam Howell and has only Marcus Mariota and Jake Fromm at QB. This certainly looks like a team that intends to draft a quarterback.

New England has picks 3, 34 and 68 — its own standard picks in the first three rounds. It's a roster in need of talent. A move down with Minnesota could set them up similarly to Washington, with a chance to add a bunch of names to a talent-thirsty roster. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, who's more likely a full-year starter than Mariota, and Bailey Zappe, who they still might want to get a long-term look at.

Both teams are beginning new chapters, and it's tough to guess the more likely trade partner. One would think Minnesota has a partner in mind, and that No. 2 is a more likely target so the Vikings can get their pick of Maye or Daniels.

The top of the draft probably doesn't shift a ton — we're likely still looking at quarterbacks in the top three either way — but there are potential betting implications down the board.

Remember, Minnesota is a clear betting favorite to land McCarthy.

Maybe that's still the case, but it doesn't make as much sense after this trade, which feels like the move before the move. McCarthy feels in some ways like the Mac Jones of this draft. He's the guy you take if you can't get the guy you really want.

I think Minnesota is setting up to get the guy it really wants, and that means McCarthy lands on another roster, which means value on McCarthy's odds.

The Giants at No. 6 (+300, FanDuel) and Broncos at No. 12 (+500) are next up in odds. Friday's news shouldn't really move the needle too much on either of those teams, though Denver theoretically dodges Minnesota stealing McCarthy one pick ahead.

I've got my eye on a few longer shots down the board as possible McCarthy destinations.

The Raiders pick at No. 13 and seem just as likely as the Broncos to draft a QB. Gardner Minshew is not the long-term answer. Why do the Raiders have such longer odds than the Broncos at +1600?

If indeed Washington or New England trades down with Minnesota, why wouldn't either of those teams be a possible McCarthy landing spot? That could even be part of the reason for a trade down — maybe that's the QB one of these teams want, so why not get him at No. 11 and add a windfall of picks in the process? The Patriots are +1600 to draft McCarthy, while the Commanders are +2600.

Further down the odds board, the Saints at No. 14 (+8000) and Buccaneers at No. 26 (+10000) also look intriguing. Both teams are more committed to a quarterback in the near future but need a long-term answer and could consider McCarthy if he slides now that Atlanta (No. 8) and Minnesota (No. 11) may be out of the picture.

The Vikings are also currently favored to land Michael Penix Jr. at +250, and they're a close second favorite to land Bo Nix. Penix and Nix are quarterbacks too, and those odds don't make much sense after this trade. Minnesota is going after a bigger name than these two guys — and that means their odds listings are off and leave value for long shots.

If this really is the move before the move for the Vikings, the time for bettors to act is right now.