T.J. Hockenson 5+ Receptions (-192)
In last week’s slugfest against the Raiders, Hockenson saw the most significant upgrade after the quarterback switch from Joshua Dobbs to Nick Mullens. His 31% target share led all receivers in the small sample size with Mullens under center, foreshadowing a larger roll heading into this week’s matchup vs. the Bengals.
Despite the return of Justin Jefferson, it should not be overlooked that Hockenson has a fantastic matchup here. The Bengals are tied for dead last in allowing the most receptions (6.77) to the tight end position this season, and they've seen the opposing team’s starting TE reach at least five receptions in 11 of their 13 games this season.
Hockenson has cleared this line in eight of his last nine and considering the line is a reception higher with the matchup, I like his chances of going over.
Joe Mixon 3+ Receptions (-260)
Mixon has always been an excellent receiver and is the Bengals' lead rusher. He has gone over this prop in seven of his last nine games and has been Jake Browning’s second-most-targeted player (11 targets) in his three full games as a starter.
Over their last six games, the Vikings have allowed 8.5 targets per game to opposing running backs and are trending up to now averaging the seventh-most receptions amongst all teams this season.
Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings blitz the most in the NFL while also playing zone at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Mixon has 28 of his 33 total receptions against zone. With the added pressure Browning will face, it should create even more upside in dump-offs to Mixon.
While rookie running back Chase Brown will surely interfere with his increased opportunity lately, I confidently feel that taking Mixon’s receptions prop a catch lower should offset enough to clear this line safely.
