Through Week 1, there are plenty of teams that were more lucky than good that enter this week 1-0.
One of them is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles topped the Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings through Week 1, leaving New England with a win over the Patriots after a lackluster offensive performance. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, the Vikings offense was efficient but not effective, scoring only 17 points against the Buccaneers in a Week 1 loss.
For more information on our NFL Luck Rankings, click here. To read more about why this matchup fits what we're looking for, continue reading below.
Vikings (28) vs. Eagles (1)
With a Luck Difference of 27 and a Luck Gap of 133%, this is the Week 1 matchup that features the largest luck discrepancy.
The Eagles put a bad beat on the Patriots thanks to Darius Slay's 70-yard interception return for a touchdown and some ineptitude from the Patriots offense in Eagles' territory.
These two teams met in Week 2 of last year, also in Philadelphia. The Eagles then were just 2.5-point favorites and won the game 24-7. However, that scoreline was quite flattering for the Eagles. Our Expected Score metric had this game closer to a four-point win for the Vikings.
The main reason is because Minnesota had not one, not two, not three, but four second-half drives get inside the Eagles' 27-yard line. Three of those made the red zone, and two reached inside the 10. The Vikings scored zero points from those drives. Replay those scenarios infinite times over, and Minnesota would be expected to score closer to 17 points from those drives.
Away teams in Week 2 that meet our Luck Matchup criteria are 14-6-1 ATS since the start of 2018.
