My strategy for Monday Night Football between the Broncos and Seahawks is to create a correlated single-game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are five legs in total and I break down each one below. Same-game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so check out our other coverage of tonight's double header here.
Kirk Cousins
30+ Passing Attempts
Last season, Cousins averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 16 starts, and he had 30 or more 14 times.
In Week 1 against the Packers, the game was largely over at the end of the third quarter, at which point Minnesota had a 93.16% win percentage. Only six of his 32 attempts against Green Bay came in the fourth quarter. Tonight, it’s unlikely the Vikings have that high a number at that point in the game.
K.J. Osborn
3+ Receptions
Osborn’s role in the Vikings offense is growing. Last season, from Weeks 1-12, he played 64% or more of snaps in five of 10 games. From Weeks 13-18, he was averaging 87% of snaps and had three or more receptions in five of those six games.
Osborn is a clear beneficiary of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s new offense. The Rams set an NFL record last season by running 11 personnel (three receivers) on 86% of plays.
Jalen Hurts
35+ Rushing Yards
Hurts cleared this total in Week 1 and nine of his final 10 games last season, during which he averaged 52.3 rushing yards. Hurts al led all QBs last season in yards over expected on designed rush plays, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Hurts’ rushing prop is set at 51.5 yards and rushing attempts at 8.5, with juice on both overs. For him to achieve this, he’d only have to average 3.8 yards per carry. He averaged 5.6 last season.
Dallas Goedert
30+ Receiving Yards
Goedert is a reliable target who has had at least 30 yards in 10 of his last 14 games, during which he’s averaged 60.7 yards. He averaged 14.8 yards per catch last season.
Books expect Goedert to have at least four catches, with the over on 3.5 receptions at -170 on DraftKings. Facing a Vikings defense that allowed 64 yards to Packers TE Robert Tonyan and Josiah Deguara last week, I’ll be backing Goedert.
Dalvin Cook
55+ Rushing Yards
Cook hit 55 rushing yards in 12 of his last 15 games, during which he’s averaged 88.1. There’s no competition for him in the backfield, as he saw 25 of 33 carries last week on 77% of snaps.
Philadelphia allowed 144 rushing yards to DeAndre Swift last week, and its run defense is not elite like some may think.
Here are the Lions rush numbers with Jordan Davis on and off the field:
On: 14 carries, 41 yards (2.93 ypc.), 3 TD
Off: 14 carries, 140 yards (10 ypc), 0 TD
He was obviously used in red zone D, which skews both ypc and TD numbers some.
Bottom line: he earned more PT. https://t.co/GHiKAGef8w
— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) September 12, 2022
The Parlay
- Kirk Cousins 30+ Passing Attempts
- K.J. Osborn 3+ Receptions
- Jalen Hurts 35+ Rushing Yards
- Dallas Goedert 30+ Receiving Yards
- Dalvin Cook 55+ Rushing Yards
