We were way off last Sunday night as Dallas finally broke its offensive slump and pretty much lived in the endzone. Their offensive explosion crushed our pick that they would continue to settle for field goals as they had in recent weeks. However, we brush it off and move on to the next one!
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBets' $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Vikings vs. Packers Odds
The news late in the week of Kirk Cousins being placed on the COVID list completely flipped the tone around this game. With Cousins healthy, the spread floated around +7 and looked like a great value given Minnesota’s propensity to play one-score games. Now, the spread has bumped up to 12.5. Even with the number that high, I am not sure I am willing to trust Sean Mannion.
With Mannion leading the way, Green Bay will likely dare the Vikings to beat them through the air. Unfortunately, Minnesota will be without its number two receiving option, Adam Thielen, as he was placed on IR this week. This will allow the Packers to allocate extra resources to Justin Jefferson and dare the backup quarterback and backup receivers to beat them.
The one glimmer of hope for the Vikings offense is the Packers defense's tendency to get lackadaisical. In each of the Packers' past four games, Green Bay has had stretches where they inexplicably allowed offenses to make games closer than they should be. This has allowed teams like the Ravens – with Tyler Huntley – and the Browns to be one or two plays away from winning after trailing by multiple possessions.
As for the Packers offense, they seem to one of the streakiest teams in the NFL. When they are hot, they can put up 4 touchdowns in two quarters and crush a defense. However, the next two quarters can be ice old, filled with three-and-outs and opportunities for opponents to fight back.
In this game, we will trust Green Bay to do more of the same. They will get out to their big lead then coast their way to victory.
The Parlay (+1100)
- Home Team Total 1st Half Over 16.5 (+120)
- Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+145)
- A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Under 48.5 (-250)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Vikings vs. Packers
Prop 1: Home Team Total 1st Half Over 16.5 (+120)
This pick comes from trusting the Packers as much as it does from not trusting Sean Mannion. We have seen Green Bay put up points in a hurry the past few weeks both because of their offensive firepower and their defense forcing turnovers.
Trusting the Packers offense to continue that trend should be no problem. They are healthy offensively and as long as Devante Adams and Aaron Rodgers are out there good things will happen. The defense may not be able to force turnovers if the Vikings run the ball and trust Dalvin Cook over Mannion. However, they should be prepared to stop that and force quick drives to get the ball back to their offense.
Prop 2: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+145)
This ties right into our pick for the Packers hot start. The Packers lost to the Vikings in their first meeting, and I am guessing Aaron Rodgers is someone who hasn’t forgot that. I’d expect him to come out swinging and looking to put this one away early. The easiest way to force the ball into Mannion’s hands is forcing the Vikings to keep up through the air, so the Packers should be aggressive. Plus, if they are going to score 17+ first half points, they will need chunk air plays to do so.
Prop 3: A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The last prop in our string of trusting Green Bay to dominate early. When the Packers have a big lead, they are happy to ground and pound and bleed the clock. As the year has gone on, they have turned to A.J. Dillon to be the guy late in games because of his size. Per pro football reference, A.J. Dillon has more carries on the year than Aaron Jones when the Packers are leading. I expect the second half to be all Dillon as Green Bay puts away their comfortable victory.
Prop 4: Under 48.5 (-250)
Here is the contrary pick that boosts our parlays value. We are trusting Green Bay to run up the score early and then bleed the clock. Typically, this opens the door for garbage time points and teams to run up the total with meaningless scores.
While the Packers have shown a tendency to allow these scores, Mannion has not shown an ability to put up the points. In his two NFL starts, Mannion has averaged 148 yards per game. Taking an under this way allows to trust the Packers to stick to their MO while leaving wiggle room for a big play from Dalvin Cook or Justin Jefferson.
There you have our same-game parlay for Vikings and Packers. Hopefully we can cash out another Vikings game and start the New Year right!
