I've found my NFL player props for Thursday Night Football tonight.
In Vikings vs. Rams, I'm fading Aaron Jones' workload in the passing game and backing a Vikings linebacker to have a busy night in the middle of the field. Let's get into my NFL props for tonight.
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NFL Player Prop Picks: Aaron Jones & Ivan Pace Jr.
Aaron Jones Player Prop
Aaron Jones has cleared this in three of six games this season. It's worth noting, though, that two of those games came in Weeks 2 and 3, when Jordan Addison was out and the Vikings let Jones play a season-high 82% of snaps in a revenge game against the Packers
This week, Jones was still limited in practice early in the week with his nagging hamstring injury. Minnesota may opt to give Ty Chandler a bit more work on the short week. Chandler has already been eating into Jones’ playing time on passing downs, so the veteran typically only runs a route on around 50% of Sam Darnold’s dropbacks.
The Vikings might be getting back T.J. Hockenson tonight which will ding Jones’ target share.
Plus, Jones tends to get targets downfield at a higher rate than most RBs so his 87% catch rate is unsustainable. His expected catch rate has been closer to 75%, which is more in line with his career average.
I'm projecting him closer to 3.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 3.5.
Vikings Player Prop for TNF
Ivan Pace Jr. is expected to draw another start for Blake Cashman, who will miss his second straight game with a toe injury. Pace racked up 10 tackles last week and played 100% of snaps in Cashman's absence. Pace only averaged a 53% snap rate in the other three games he played this season but would have had a 10.6 tackles-per-game rate for a full game.
This is also a great matchup for Pace to rack up tackles. He's going to be very involved in tackles in the run game, and the Vikings have faced a league-low 20 rush attempts per game. I'm expecting the Rams to attempt closer to 24.5 runs tonight.
But wait, it gets better.
Assisted tackles are a fairly subjective stat, similar to assists in basketball, where the home team’s scorekeeper gets the final call. So far this season, Vikings stat keepers have been the stingiest with dishing out assists, so Pace’s assist rate should get a boost on the road here. The Rams scorekeepers have been the most generous in terms of dishing out assists, which gives him an even bigger boost.
I’m projecting Pace for 9.7 tackles + assists with around a 62% chance of clearing 8.5.
