The Seattle Seahawks host the Minnesota Vikings as 7-point favorites for a Sunday Night Football showdown. But where's the value on this spread?
Our staff outlines a case for either side of this primetime game.
Seahawks vs. Vikings Picks
Stuckey: Vikings +7
When these teams met the end of 2019, the line closed at Seahawks -2.5/-3. Now they’re 7-point favorites against the Vikings (compare real-time odds for every Week 5 game here). But has that much really changed between these two teams?
Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson finished that matchup with fairly similar stat lines in a 37-30 win for the Seahawks. It’s worth noting that Dalvin Cook left that game early with an injury, Adam Thielen didn’t play and the Vikings turned the ball over four times in their own territory if you include one turnover on downs.
Sure, Wilson is playing at an MVP level, tying Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 16 passing touchdowns through a team’s first four games. However, that’s nothing new for Wilson.
This is pretty much the same Seahawks team as 2019. And yes, they seem to be letting Russ cook earlier than usual, but the defense has struggled mightily, partly due to injuries.
Three of Seattle’s wins have come against the Falcons, Cowboys and Dolphins — a trio that features some of the worst NFL defenses and has combined for two wins: The Cowboys over the Falcons and the Dolphins over the Jaguars — Seattle’s victories over Dallas and Atlanta look worse with each passing week. And the Seahawks’ fourth win came against the now 2-2 Patriots, who fell one yard shy of pulling out the road victory.
The Seahawks still have plenty of flaws in the trenches on both sides of the ball and on the back end of the defense.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have lost to the Packers, Titans and Colts — three teams with one combined loss.
Statistically, the Vikings and Seahawks have fairly similar profiles. They each feature very good offenses that rank in the top five in yards per play and defenses that have struggled over the first month. Seattle has allowed 6.6 yards per play (bottom-five in NFL) while Minnesota has given up 6.3. From a net yards per play perspective, both clubs sit at +0.4.
The biggest difference between these two teams is public perception: The Vikings are not as bad as their 1-3 record indicates and they’re trending in the right direction, while the Seahawks’ perfect 4-0 record overall and ATS is misleading.
I’m sure Russ will cook up some explosive plays against the raw Minnesota corners, but remember this matchup was lined at Seattle -2.5 last December in primetime with fans. Now, it’s +7?
Look, I’ve bumped Seattle and downgraded Minnesota since then, but I still only make this game Seattle -4.8.
Ultimately, I just need to avoid a Seahawks win by more than one possession — something they rarely do as, over the past three seasons, 16 of their past 18 wins came by a single possession.
I took +7.5 as soon as I saw it earlier in the week and still love anything at a touchdown or greater — let’s just hope All Pro Eric Kendricks can give it a go after missing practice this week.
[Bet $1 on the Vikings +7 at BetMGM and win $100 if there’s a touchdown]
Brandon Anderson: Seahawks -7
The Seahawks were my favorite early pick, and I’ve seen no reason to back off of them as the week has gone on. The line has yet to budge but still feels like it could move toward the Seahawks in a hurry once the Sunday night money comes pouring in.
The Vikings have never beaten Russell Wilson. Wilson is 6-0 against Minnesota lifetime with four wins by double digits. Mike Zimmer’s defense has not had much success against Wilson — the Vikings struggle to contain Wilson in the pocket, and that problem will only be exacerbated with Anthony Barr out for the season.
And of course, Wilson is playing better now than ever with 16 touchdowns through four games, the most ever by a quarterback, while Minnesota has struggled to stop the pass with a bunch of young, inexperienced cornerbacks playing through injuries.
Seattle is going to #LetRussCook, so Minnesota might have to #LetDalvinCook, too, and match the Seahawks in a shootout. Seattle’s defense has been beatable and is missing Jamal Adams, but it’s the Seahawks pass defense that has been vulnerable. Seattle’s run defense has been stout, negating Minnesota’s bread and butter strength.
If you bet on the Vikings, you’re betting on Kirk Cousins on the road in a huge national TV spot outplaying Russell Wilson against a team he’s never lost to.
Read that sentence again.
Now go put your money on Seattle -7 before the line rises.
[Bet now at PointsBet and get $125 if the Seahawks score a point]
