Commanders vs Giants Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Commanders vs. Giants odds have been pretty steady this week, with Washington laying a field goal on the spread and a low total that keeps getting lower. The over/under opened Sunday at 37.5 but was down to 37 as of 10:35 a.m. ET.
The Commanders travel to New Jersey to take on the sputtering Giants. Can this banged up Giants team rally together to defend home turf, or will the Commanders improve to 4-3?
Below is our game preview, with a Commanders vs. Giants pick for this NFC East matchup.
Commanders vs. Giants
Matchup Analysis
While the Giants defense improved in Week 6, their offense was still dreadful, mustering just nine points against a Bills defense that was missing their three best players.
New York's offense is clearly a bottom-five unit, and in my opinion, it doesn’t matter whether it’s Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. I think you can make a strong case that Taylor is the better option right now given his mobility and the dire state of the offensive line.
Taylor posted an impressive completion percentage over expected (9.4%), completing 77.4% of his passes versus an expected rate of 68%. Whoever is in at quarterback should be under constant pressure as this is a massive mismatch for the Giants offensive line. The Commanders rank around league average in pressure rate, but they should be able to find success going up against an O-line of mostly backups.
The Giants have signed three offensive linemen off practice squads this week as C John Michael Schmitz, RT Evan Neal, T Matt Peart and LT Andrew Thomas are all likely to be out. This is a disaster for the Giants and I expect Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat to absolutely dominate the trenches.
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The Commanders offense has been roughly league average, ranking 19th in EPA/play and in success rate. Sam Howell has exceeded expectations; he ranks 14th in adjusted EPA/play and CPOE composite score, according to rbsdm.com.
The Giants defense has been a disaster (29th in EPA/play and success rate). They’ve been awful against the run, ranking 31st in EPA/play and explosive run rate, as well as bottom five in missed tackle rate.
The defense was certainly better last week against the Bills, but I don’t put much stock into that given the situational spot of Buffalo traveling back from London.
We have plenty of evidence of this being a bad defense, and I think the Commanders will have success as long as Howell can avoid negative plays.
Commanders vs. Giants
Betting Picks & Predictions
The mismatch in the trenches between the Commanders' defensive line and the Giants' offensive line is too significant for me to have faith in New York as home underdogs.
I will be backing the Commanders at -2 as I fully expect their defense to dominate. The Commanders offense is good enough to post an average offensive output and that’s all they should need to cover.
I grabbed -2, but I would be careful laying any number past -3.
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