Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction, Picks, Odds for Monday Night Football

The Washington Commanders (1-1) and Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) cap off NFL Week 3 tonight on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, and the game will be broadcast live on ABC and streamed on platforms like ESPN+ or YouTube TV.

The Bengals are consensus 7.5-point favorites over the Commanders (Bengals -7.5), with the game total currently set at 46, down from 46.5 earlier today. Cincinnati is a -350 favorite on the moneyline, while Washington is +280 to pull off the upset.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow looked better last week in a 26-25 loss to Kansas City, and he'll get wide receiver Tee Higgins back. On the other side, Jayden Daniels won the first game of his NFL career last week 21-18 over the Giants. The No. 2 overall pick has been electric through two games and looks like a potential superstar, but he'll face a difficult challenge tonight.

Let's get into my Commanders vs. Bengals predictions and my best NFL picks Monday night.

Spread

I am in line with the spread for this game and have no bet.

Moneyline

I'm betting neither moneyline.

Over/Under

My pick is on the over with a potentially high-scoring game on tap.

Prediction

My Pick: Over 46 (Bet to 47.5)

Monday Night Football Odds: Spread, Total, Moneyline

Monday, Sept. 23

8:15 p.m. ET

ABC

Commanders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7.5 -115	46.5 -112o / -108u	+270

Bengals] Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7.5 -105	46.5 -112o / -108u	-340

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Commanders vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -7.5
• Commanders vs. Bengals over/under: Over/Under 46.5
• Commanders vs. Bengals moneyline: Bengals -340, Commanders +270

Bengals vs. Commanders Betting Trends

• 74% of bets and 70% of the money are on the Bengals to cover the spread.
• 47% of bets and 61% of the money are on the over.
• 93% of bets and 89% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bengals.

This is obviously an important game for the Bengals, who started out 0-2. An 0-3 start with home losses to the Patriots and Commanders would be disastrous, especially when considering that only one of the 129 teams that has started 0-3 has made the playoffs over the past 25 seasons.

Scoring was a bit suppressed across the NFL in the first two weeks, but a lot of that had to with a lack of red-zone production, which is full of short-term variance. I’d expect a bit of positive regression in that department.

Look no further than Week 2, when the Commanders scored 21 points on the Giants thanks to seven field goals. That should regress a bit.

And there’s no reason why Washington shouldn’t be able to move the ball against a Cincinnati defense that certainly has holes, especially against the run with D.J. Reader no longer there. Without him in the lineup, the Bengals had the worst run defense in the NFL last year. The picture doesn’t look any prettier this season as the Bengals rank 25th in Rush EPA and 28th in Rush Success Rate.

To make matters worse, Cincinnati is dealing with a number of injuries along the interior of its defensive line. With Sheldon Rankins out and B.J. Hill doubtful, it’s bleak in the middle.

Additionally, starting safety Vonn Bell is questionable. I did like what the Bengals did at the safety position in the offseason as that position is key under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. A solid tandem not only plugs up some of the explosive play issues we saw last year, but also provides Anarumo with much more flexibility in terms of scheme and adjustments.

There’s no reason why Washington's offense can’t move the ball on the ground consistently while mixing in a few explosives. Jayden Daniels also provides a nice floor with his ability to extend plays and convert third downs with his legs. Daniels was the most impressive rookie quarterback through his teams’s first two games, ranking in the top eight in both Adjusted EPA per Play and EPA+CPOE composite among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

On the other side of the ball, Washington has one of the worst defenses in the league. Many assumed that to be the case coming into the season and it has played out that way on the field.

$20 Off With Code PERFECT

Raybon's real-time pick alerts

Top player prop edges

Premium article analysis

SAVE $20 NOW!

Despite facing the Bucs and Giants, the Commanders rank last in EPA per play through two weeks. Now, Washington will have to face an angry and desperate Bengals team that usually starts to find its stride in Week 3. It also doesn’t hurt that Tee Higgins is expected to return. Washington simply has nobody to cover Cincinnati's dynamic duo on the outside.

I think this total is a bit too low given some of the issues with both defenses.

I also expect Cincinnati to come out with a pass-heavy game plan to exploit their distinct advantages on the outside. And it really looked like Joe Burrow started to get into rhythm last week in Kansas City.

Meanwhile, Washington should have sustained success on the ground and will, in all likelihood, have to eventually pick up the pace in a trailing game state.

Pick: Over 46 (Bet to 47.5)

How to Watch: Location, Time, Streaming

Bengals vs. Commanders is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET live from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The game will be broadcast live on ABC and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.

NFL Weather Monday

For more on NFL weather updates, click here.