The Washington Commanders (11-5) face the Dallas Cowboys (7-9) in NFL Week 18. Sunday's game will kick off at 1:00 p.m. EST from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks for today's game.
News broke late Sunday morning that the Cowboys would start Trey Lance at quarterback, and the Commanders are 7-point favorites over the Cowboys (Commanders -7) with game total set at over/under 43.5 points (-115o / -105u). The Commanders are -305 moneyline favorites to win outright while the Cowboys are +245 to pull off the upset.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
Spread
The Commanders have all the hype entering this game, but the Cowboys have shown they're going to play hard until the very end.
I like Dallas to cover the spread in this spot — you can get a number as high as +7 at some sportsbooks.
Over/Under
The game total is also a pass for me.
My Pick: Cowboys +7; Bet to +5
Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -305 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +245 |
- Commanders vs. Cowboys spread: Commanders -7 (-105), Cowboys +7 (-115)
- Commanders vs. Cowboys over/under: 43.5 points scored (-115o / -105u)
- Commanders vs. Cowboys moneyline: Commanders -305, Cowboys +245
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Preview
- 69% of bets and 75% of money on the spread are on the Commanders to cover.
- 81% of bets and 66% of money on the total are on the OVER.
- 87% of bets and 83% of money bet on the moneyline are on the Commanders to win outright.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Picks
The Cowboys will be without CeeDee Lamb in Week 18, which is obviously a big blow. He was a target monster who Cooper Rush was looking for early and often.
On the plus side, Brandon Aubrey kicking at home gives Dallas a huge special teams advantage. He’s a machine and the Cowboys won't need to gain that much yardage to put him into kicking range.
The Commanders are incentivized to win here.
A win and they’re the No. 6 seed in the NFC, which means a trip to play the Rams or the NFC South winner. A loss and a Packers win would mean a trip to Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend.
This is a tough spot for a young Commanders team that is coming off an emotional win on Sunday Night Football over the Falcons. That was one of the biggest games in the last 20 years for this team, sealing a playoff spot with an overtime victory.
The Commanders haven’t been playing very well of late, though. Washington has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has won five games on the last play, one of which was a Hail Mary.
The Commanders have beaten one playoff team this season, and that was the Eagles in Week 16 after Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion and missed most of the game.
Everything is going the Commanders’ way. They have fumbled 19 times this season but have only lost six of them. They’re 19-of-22 on fourth down this season. Everything is coming up Commanders.
The Cowboys, though, have shown they aren’t going to quit. They’ve already tried to ruin the Buccaneers’ season and have put together some solid performances over the last six weeks.
I’m expecting Dallas to lean on Rico Dowdle and the run game. I also anticipate the Cowboys will be aggressive in deploying Aubrey to get points on the board as underdogs.
The Cowboys were embarrassed last week against the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. This defense is playing hard and can put pressure on Jayden Daniels, especially against a banged-up Commanders offensive line.
My Pick: Cowboys +7; Bet to +5
