The Washington Commanders are 9-point underdogs at most sportsbooks tonight against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Round, as of Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET from Ford Field on FOX.
Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to an upset win over the Buccaneers last week and now gets a chance to shock the world against the best team in the NFL and Super Bowl favorites. Detroit went 15-2 in the regular season and comes in after a bye week as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for Commanders vs. Lions.
Commanders vs. Lions Predictions
Commanders vs. Lions Spread Pick
By Billy Ward
After decades of bad luck, everything seems to be looking up for the Lions this season. They've managed to catch teams at the right time most of the season and now find themselves matched up with the No. 6-seed Commanders instead of the Rams or Vikings.
Plus, Detroit is really good. The Lions went 12-4-1 against the spread during the regular season, which was the best in the NFL, with an absurd +222 scoring differential, which was also best in the league by more than 60 points.
This feels like another statement game for Dan Campbell and company, with a rookie quarterback coming into a raucous Ford Field that's seeing just its second-ever playoff game. Detroit should be able to run the ball at will against a Washington defense that ranked 26th in DVOA against the run this season, while making big plays on defense against the rookie quarterback.
The Lions will have some close games this postseason, but it won't be this week.
Commanders vs. Lions Over/Under Bet
By Erik Beimfohr
Washington has improved on defense over the course of this season, but this is still not an elite unit.
Last week, the Commanders allowed Baker Mayfield to average 10 yards per attempt while Bucky Irving averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Washington's best defense was how long its offense kept the ball, with more than 40 minutes of possession.
This week, the Commanders will not be able to do that against this juggernaut Lions offense.
The Lions have gone over this number in four of their last games and aren't going to take the foot off the gas late in a game in a playoff setting.
Commanders vs. Lions Player Props
By Chris Prince
Jameson Williams continues to be a bigger part of this Lions passing attack, seeing at least seven targets in six of his last seven games. He has eclipsed this number in nine of his 15 games this season and is averaging 72.9 receiving yards over his eight home games.
The Lions have a massive 32.5 implied team total, which should lead to plenty of fireworks for this offense. With all the focus on slowing down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the ground and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the passing game, Williams should find himself in plenty of advantageous spots against this vulnerable Washington defense.
I bet this on Thursday at 53.5, so I bet this before the number rises too much.
Commanders vs. Lions Anytime TD Scorers
By Grant Neiffer
Jayden Daniels gets a tough matchup vs. the Lions, but the Commanders will be relying on him heavily with a 55.5-point total and as 8.5-point underdogs.
Daniels has been running the ball at a high clip over the Commanders' last five games with at least nine carries in each game he's finished. The Lions have run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, which is great for running QBs. Detroit has also given up six rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Daniels has 39 carries in the red zone this season to go along with six rushing touchdowns. Detroit has one of the better rushing defenses in the NFL, so it wouldn't shock me if Daniels saw an increased workload on the ground in the red zone.
I have the true odds at around +150, making this a great bet.
