The Washington Commanders (8-5) and New Orleans Saints (5-8) square off in NFL Week 15. Kickoff is set for in 1 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Commanders are favored by 7.5 points with the game total set at 43.5 points scored. The Commanders are -380 favorites to win outright, while the Saints are +300 to pull off the upset.
The Commanders are coming off their bye week; they have lost three of their last four games. Washington ended a three-game skid with a 42-19 win over the Titans two weeks ago. The Saints won 14-11 over the Giants last week and have won three of their last four games, all since firing head coach Dennis Allen. Derek Carr left the win over New York injured, so Jake Haener will start at quarterback for the Saints.
Let's get into my Saints vs Commanders predictions and NFL picks.
Commanders vs. Saints Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
- Commanders vs. Saints spread: Commanders -7.5
- Commanders vs. Saints over/under: 43.5 points scored
- Commanders vs. Saints moneyline: Commanders -380, Saints +300
- Commanders vs. Saints best bet: Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
MyCommanders vs. Saints best bet is on Brian Robinson Jr., with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Despite Jake Haener starting for the Saints, I'm not betting either side of the spread.
Over/Under
With the uncertainty under center for New Orleans, I'll pass on betting the total.
Player Props
This is where my bets for the game will be. As I lay out below, I'm looking to invest in Brian Robinson Jr. here. He has a great matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
I'd recommend the anytime touchdown scorer bet, but there are others I have my eye on.
My Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
Commanders vs. Saints NFL Week 15 Preview
This is a straight fade of the Saints’ run defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. New Orleans ranks 31st in DVOA against the run, but it has been especially bad since Week 6.
In that span, the Saints rank in the bottom three of the NFL in yards per carry allowed, EPA per rush and Success Rate. The Commanders are in the top five of all of those categories in the same stretch.
Brian Robinson Jr. has also been quietly very important to this Commanders team.
Washington is 7-2 with Robinson in the lineup and 1-3 without as its rushing efficiency takes a big hit without him. Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols are averaging below 3.2 yards per carry in the four games Robinson has missed.
Robinson, meanwhile, is averaging about 15 carries for 70 yards per game this season with a touchdown in seven of nine games and three 100-yard rushing performances. When in the lineup, he has been a player the Commanders can depend on.
Ekeler is on injured reserve, which hurts because that inflates Robinson’s line, which was at 76.5 rushing yards at most books as of Thursday. He has gone over that line just three times this season, and he reached 100 yards in all three of those games.
I’d still recommend the over on 76.5, but I’d also sprinkle a bit on 100+ rushing yards. The Saints have allowed that three times this season, and Robinson is +240 to make it four at bet365.
I’d also look to Robinson’s touchdown odds if you can get that at -125 or better. Nine of 13 opposing RB1s have scored against the Saints this season, including eight of the last nine to face them.
Five running backs have had multiple rushing touchdowns against New Orleans this season, so look for escalators on 100+ yards and two touchdowns, which is more than +1000 at most sportsbooks.
My Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
Saints vs Commanders Betting Trends
NFL Weather
