NFL Week 11 will begin with the Washington Commanders (7-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) facing off on Thursday Night Football. The game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia and will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders (Eagles -4) with the over/under set at 49.5. The Eagles are -210 on the moneyline, while the Commanders are +175. Philadelphia is one-half game ahead of Washington for first place the NFC East standings.
The Eagles have won five straight games and blew out the Cowboys last week 34-6. Jalen Hurts continued a strong run of form with 4 touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing). Washington lost by 1 point to the Steelers as Jayden Daniels was kept out of the end zone and only ran for 5 yards.
Let's get to our Commanders vs. Eagles predictions and NFL Thursday Night Football picks.
Commanders vs. Eagles Picks, Predictions
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction Against the Spread: Commanders +4 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles Over/Under Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer (+220)
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds, Spread, Over/Under
NFL odds via bet365.
- Commanders vs. Eagles Spread: Eagles -4 (-110)
- Commanders vs. Eagles Game Total: Over/Under 49.5 points scored
- Commanders vs. Eagles Moneylines: Eagles -210 | Commanders +175
Commanders vs. Eagles Against the Spread Pick
If you just happened to glance at the Steelers' victory over the Commanders last week without context, you may have thought the defenses played poorly resulting in the 28-27 final score. However, the Commanders defense was excellent by holding Pittsburgh to just 4.2 yards per play.
The Washington defense was especially stout against the run, surrendering just 3.3 yards per rush on the Steelers' 43 rushing attempts. This bodes well against an Eagles offense that relies on its rushing attack with 55% of its offensive yards coming on the ground, the highest percentage in the NFL.
If Washington can limit Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts in the running game, I like its chances of putting pressure on Hurts. The Commanders defense is second in the league in pressure rate at 40% and fourth best league-wide in pass rush win rate. Hurts' passer rating and completion percentage crater from 114.5 and 79% when throwing from a clean pocket to 80.3 and 52% when he's pressured.
The Eagles defense has been one of the top units in the league since its Eeek 5 bye, but the overall body of work becomes less impressive when you consider they have faced Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and Cooper Rush during that span. The Washington offense presents a much tougher challenge, as no offense has traveled better in the 2024 season, averaging nearly 3.5 points per drive, the best in the NFL.
TNF underdogs haven't historically been a profitable endeavor. However, NFC East 'dogs have returned a +15.7% ROI over a 34-game sample size against divisional opponents on Thursday nights.
Pick: Commanders +4 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
Both of these teams seem to be hitting their offensive strides at the right time entering Week 11. The Eagles have scored at least 28 points in four straight games, and the Commanders are tied for third in the NFL by averaging 29 points per game.
However, a lot of that offensive success can be put down to the schedules that they've faced. The Eagles' last four games have come against defenses that enter Week 11 ranked 26th or worse in DVOA. Before that, they averaged 17 points per game against teams that rank between 18th and 23rd.
The Commanders defense isn't anything special, but this unit is closer to the latter group of mediocre units around the middle of the league than those that rank near the bottom.
The Eagles defense, meanwhile, is a top-10 unit that will be the best Washington has faced all season.
Plus, this is an outdoor divisional game in November on a short week. All of those are good signals toward the under. On top of that, these teams combine to average 63 minutes of possession per game, which means about 3 minutes will be "lost" between these teams' typical game scripts.
This total opened at 45.5 but has risen from 48.5 on Wednesday night and 49.5 on Thursday morning.
Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles Player Prop for DeVonta Smith
While I think that A.J. Brown is the much more likely guy to score tonight, the odds here on Smith are far too good to pass up.
The Commanders pass defense has been bad against wide receivers this season, giving up 12 touchdown receptions on the year. DeVonta Smith hasn't been targeted a ton this season in the red zone, but he's had three long touchdowns on the season and the Commanders have allowed four touchdowns of 30 or more yards to WRs thus far.
The Commanders have been worse in defending WR1s (Brown) this season, but they've still been bad against opposing WR2s (Smith). The total in this game is good sitting at 48.5, and there are going to be TDs scored in this spot. I have the true odds on Smith sitting around +180 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer (+220)
