The Washington Commanders (7-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) will kick off NFL Week 11. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Eagles are consensus 4-point favorites over the Commanders (Eagles -4) with the game total set at 49.5. The Eagles are a -220 favorite to win outright, while the Commanders are +180 to pull off the upset.
The Eagles won 34-6 over the Cowboys last week thanks to a standout performance by Jalen Hurts, while Jayden Daniels struggled in the Commanders' 28-27 loss to the Steelers. Philadelphia enters the game one-half game ahead of Washington in first place in the NFC East.
Let's get into my Commanders vs. Eagles predictions and NFL picks for Thursday Night Football.
Commanders vs. Eagles Picks, Predictions
Against the Spread
Jayden Daniels should bounce back this week after rushing for just five yards in the Commanders' 28-27 loss to the Steelers. Our expected score metric, which helps fuel our NFL Luck Rankings, suggests they'd typically win 35-20 if you removed the plays that were driven by luck.
The Eagles have allowed the third-lowest red-zone touchdown rate this season. That stat isn't as predictive as most people think since most teams tend to regress toward the league average. How frequently a team gets into the red zone or prevents a team from getting in the red zone is much more telling than the percentage at which they allow points. For example, the Panthers are fourth in red zone touchdown rate, but you wouldn’t consider them a top-five offense. The Packers, Rams and 49ers rank in the bottom five in red zone touchdown rate, but you also wouldn’t consider them below-average offenses.
I think the market tends to overrate/underrate teams based on this metric, and we should expect the Eagles defense to allow more red-zone drives to result in touchdowns moving forward, possibly as soon as tonight.
The same goes for the Commanders defense, which has allowed the third-highest red zone rate in the NFL at 70%. I'd expect Washington to allow fewer red-zone touchdowns moving forward.
I think those red-zone figures and everything else I’ll lay out below make Washington the play here. I had projected this as Eagles -2.5, so I was surprised that we got better than the most valuable number for NFL spreads, which is three.
Over/Under
I project this total at 49.5, so I'm right in line with it and have no pick on this game's total.
Moneyline
I'll take the points with the Commanders instead of betting their moneyline.
My Pick: Commanders +4 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds, Over/Under, Moneyline
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -115 | 449.58.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Commanders vs. Eagles spread: Eagles -4
- Commanders vs. Eagles over/under: 49.5 points scored
- Commanders vs. Eagles moneyline: Eagles -220, Commanders +180
- Commanders vs. Eagles best pick: Commanders +4 (-110)
MyCommanders vs. Eagles best bet is on the underdog. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs. Eagles Preview: Thursday Night Football
Only Lamar Jackson has a higher EPA per dropback than Daniels through 10 weeks. The rookie sensation has been a very efficient passer with a 69% completion rate while also avoiding turnovers with just two interceptions. His 1.7% turnover-worthy-play rate is the third-lowest among 41 qualified QBs.
Daniels has also provided a ton of value with his rushing ability as he ranks second in EPA/rush which ranks second among all ball carriers. However, he only rushed three times for five yards last week. It was the first time in his career that he failed to scramble at least once. The Steelers have done a great job of limiting QBs rushing ability this season, so I expect Daniels to bounce back in terms of his rushing here.
The Commanders are also getting RB Brian Robinson back after missing the last two games due to a hamstring injury. He ranks seventh in EPA/rush while Austin Ekeler ranks sixth. That gives the Commanders three players who rank in the top seven in EPA/rush this season.
The Eagles run defense is 11th in DVOA on the season, but it stacks the box at the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Commanders have averaged 0.167 EPA/rush against non-stacked boxes this season, which ranks first in the NFL but is more than double the EPA/rush of the third-ranked team (Cardinals).
I expect the Commanders will lean on their run game and be effective with it.
Head coach Nick Sirianni accidentally leaked to reporters that Jalen Hurts was dealing with some sort of ankle injury before the Eagles' win over the Cowboys, but Hurts had one of his best rushing lines of the season with seven carries for 56 yards and two touchdowns. That put any concerns over his ankle to rest.
WR DeVonta Smith was dealing with a hamstring injury and only managed two receptions for 14 yards. He was removed from the injury report despite being limited in practice all week, but it's fair to suspect Smith won't be 100% on the short week.
The Commanders defense has been below average this season, ranking 20th in pass DVOA and 24th in rush DVOA.
It will be key for the Commanders to pressure Hurts and create pressure. This season, he ranks fifth out of 35 qualified QBs in EPA/dropback with a clean pocket, but he drops to 15th when under pressure. The Commanders rank 10th in pressure rate on the season but have been even better of late, ranking third since Week 5.
The Eagles have one of the best tackle duos in the league in Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, which means it’ll be a tough test for Commanders edge rushers Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. I think the players to watch will be Daron Payne getting pressure up the middle and linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, who are the only linebackers duo in the league with 10 or more pressures this season.
Hurts struggled with that type of pressure last week as he was sacked by LB DeMarvion Overshown twice last week. He's also very fortunate to only have five interceptions this season since he has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate, according to Pro Football Focus. Hurts could be due to throw more interceptions moving forward.
My Pick: Commanders +4 (-110)
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