The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the final game of the NFL Wild Card Sunday tripleheader. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC.
The Bucs are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders; the game total is set at 51.5 points (-105o / – 115u). The Buccaneers are -165 moneyline favorites and the Commanders are +140 underdogs.
Let’s get into our Commanders vs. Bucs predictions, Wild Card parlay and prop picks for Sunday night.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Expert Predictions
- Against the Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-105)
- Over/Under Pick: Over 50 (-110)
- Player Props: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds
- Spread:Commanders +3 (-110), Buccaneers -3 (-110)
- Total: 51.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Moneylines: Commanders +140, Buccaneers -165
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get the latest NFL odds here.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay
You can parlay our three individual picks at BetMGM for a +450 SGP.
- Bucs -3 (-110)
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Commanders vs. Bucs parlay: +450
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Spread Pick
By Chris Raybon
I'm not sure I expect the Buccaneers to deliver another blowout victory over the Commanders on Sunday night — like they did all the way back in Week 1 — but I do expect Tampa Bay to win and cover.
I love this matchup for the Buccaneers, who love to blitz defensively. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been as efficient against the blitz with a 45% success rate against the blitz compared to 52% when he’s not. Daniels’ touchdown rating also goes down.
Any success Washington has offensively is going to come down to Daniels carrying the load and creating plays. The fact that he may not have a successful run game alongside him is worrisome.
Defensively, the Commanders have been blitzing a lot while playing more single-high-safety coverage than any other team. Well, Mayfield is No. 1 in success rate against the blitz, and he ranks in the top five in success rate against single-high and two-high coverages.
You could see either team’s passing game do well here, but I don’t think the Commanders will be able to contain the Bucs’ run game. Bucky Irving has taken over as the lead back for Tampa Bay and he could be in for a big workload. Washington ranks 23rd in line yards on defense and 28th in yards allowed per carry to opposing running backs.
Pick: Bucs -3 (-110)
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under Pick
By John LanFranca
These teams met back in Week 1, and while I do not take much from the 57 combined points scored, we do know for certain the Commanders offense is considerably better at this point.
Both of these offenses rank in the top five in points per drive — they do not waste possessions. In fact, the very best offense on the road this season has been the Commanders', averaging 2.8 points per possession.
Since that Week 1 meeting, Jayden Daniels has led his team to a 5-2 record on the road, with his only losses coming at the hands of the Ravens and Eagles. I do not expect the moment to be too big for him, or more importantly, for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to call plays in a manner that you may normally see for a rookie in his first playoff game.
With a total this high, converting in the red zone is a crucial element to the final score. Both offenses rank in the top six in touchdown percentage when entering the red zone, while Bucs' defense is 14th and the Commanders defense 22nd in efficiency with their backs to the end zone.
The Tampa Bay offense is coming into Sunday night hot. The Bucs have scored 24 or more points in seven consecutive games, and they finished the season as the best offense in third-down conversion rate.
The Washington defense has struggled to contain passing attacks that feature an abundance of quick game this season, which just so happens to be a staple of the Bucs offense.
Baker Mayfield is playing at the highest level of his career. This is only the fifth time all season the Commanders defense has faced a quarterback we will see in the playoffs — those four teams averaged 30.2 points game.
This will be an entertaining, high-scoring affair on Sunday night. I'd play this total up to 51.
Pick: Over 50 (-110); Bet to Over 51
Anytime Touchdown Props: Mike Evans
By Grant Neiffer
Evans delivered another stellar regular season, with 1,004 receiving yards and 11 TDs in 14 games. He should be in for his usual heavy volume on Sunday night.
