We cashed out big last week as the +1000 odds on our Monday Night Football same-game parlay gave us a green Christmas. We did have some good bounces, though, with a blocked field goal in the first half and the Bears scoring a touchdown as time expired.
On the flip side, we have had our bad breaks — looking at you, Geno Smith — so I guess it all evens out. Let’s get back to it and hope the ball bounces our way once again.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Washington vs. Cowboys Odds
The Week 16 edition of Sunday Night Football brings us a divisional rematch between Washington and Dallas. The first version of this game was not lacking in excitement, to say the least — the Dallas defense completely smothered the Washington offense, forcing four turnovers while holding the Football Team to 3-for-14 on third downs.
The Cowboys' offense didn’t meet their defense in terms of success. They had five possessions reach the red zone but were held to one touchdown and four field goals. For an offense as talented as the Cowboys' unit, that is a major letdown, and was the main reason the Football Team had a chance to be within one score late in the game.
Unfortunately for viewers, I am expecting a similar outcome tonight. In each of the past three weeks, the Dallas defense has forced four turnovers. In all of those games, the offense failed to break 30 points.
I heard an analogy that the Cowboy’s season has followed the same path as Chiefs' has, and it just fits too well. Both relied on offense early in the season, hit a slump, looked lost in games they should win, then finally found their stride because of their defense — not their offense.
As for Washington, it is hard to imagine the offense looking better against Dallas. The four turnovers in that first meeting were just the ones Dallas converted. Washington’s quarterbacks combined for one interception but five turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. While the Football Team, might not fumble to the same degree, the interceptions might tick up.
On defense, Washington did a solid job keeping the Cowboys offense in line. Had it not been for all the turnovers giving excellent field position and a touchdown, we might be saying the defense played well enough to win.
This is another case in which our script depends much more on the play of defenses than offenses. That makes forecasting how the events unfold throughout the game difficult as we are pretty much waiting for the big interception or strip-sack to swing the game. For that reason, we are going to stick with full-game props and hope these defenses can do their jobs for four quarters.
Our script will be simple for this one, too. This should be a game Dallas controls from start to finish. However, just like the last meeting, if the Cowboys struggle to convert touchdowns this could be a long slow bleed. We are going to trust the Dallas defense to continue holding offenses down and forcing turnovers — as it has recently — while trusting that the offense will continue its trend of not lighting up the scoreboard.
The Parlay (+1200)
- Cowboys -11.5 (+110)
- Race to 30 Points Neither (+100)
- Tony Pollard Over 45.5 Rush Yards (-105)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: WFT vs. Cowboys
Cowboys -12.5 (+130)
The last game ended 27-20, but the Football Team was fortunate it ended that close. The 43-yard touchdown receptions by Cam Sims was a catch of the year candidate, and Prescott threw an inexplicable pick-six late in the game.
I don’t expect Washington to get as many favorable breaks in this one, especially if you consider all their dropped interception luck.
As for trusting Dallas, we saw a game very similar to this just last week. The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants and won 21-6. Even though their offense has struggled to make it into the end zone, Dallas has shown no problem marching into field goal range.
The Cowboys have too much talent to be held down all game. If the defense holds Washington to short possessions, as it did last game, Dallas will make something happen and cover the large spread.
Race to 30 Points: Neither (+100)
This is the risky pick that makes our parlay odds soar through the roof. With our spread pick, this comes down to Dallas scoring fewer than 30 points. Early in the year, that would seem unlikely, but the Cowboys have scored fewer than 30 in each of their last three wins.
The difference is likely the trust in their defense as they don’t feel the need to run up the score. Rather, they are willing to run the ball and force opposing offenses to make plays.
It seems counterintuitive to pick a score cap with a high spread, but it makes sense here. We are focused on the Washington offense doing nothing offensively against the elite Cowboys defense. Similar to last week, even an 18-0 lead for Dallas would feel insurmountable. They should have no problem turning to the running game and bleeding the clock.
Tony Pollard Over 45.5 Rush Yards (-105)
Utilizing their running game is exactly why I added in this prop. The only reason Pollard does not get the lion's share of the work is that his paycheck does not have enough zeroes on it. He has shown to be better than Ezekiel Elliott throughout the year and I expect him to continue his success.
Pollard is playing through a foot injury, but he looked great against New York, rushing for 74 yards on 12 carries. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and was at a 40/60 split with Zeke last week. That may have been because they had a comfortable lead, but I expect that to be the case again anyway.
There you have it our last same game parlay of the year. We had a green Christmas last week and hopefully, we can ride again and make the New Year even happier!
