Editor's note: The following Week 1 NFL Pick'Em Pool Rankings have been updated to reflect the results of Sean Koerner's latest simulations as of Saturday evening.
To help you make your first pick'em decisions of the 2021 NFL season, I've ranked Week 1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) picks by confidence.
These rankings are based on my power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections — they account for various factors such as travel, injuries and any news that could impact betting odds.
Week 1 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Rankings
| Conf | Team | Opp | Win Prob% |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-1 | Buccaneers | vs. DAL | 75% |
| T-1 | 49ers | @ DET | 75% |
| 3 | Rams | vs. CHI | 74% |
| 4 | Bills | vs. PIT | 72% |
| 5 | Chiefs | vs. CLE | 69% |
| 6 | Packers | @ NO | 66% |
| 7 | Panthers | vs. NYJ | 65% |
| 8 | Ravens | @ LV | 65% |
| 9 | Falcons | vs. PHI | 60% |
| 10 | Titans | vs. ARI | 59% |
| T-11 | Jaguars | @ HOU | 58% |
| T-11 | Vikings | @ CIN | 58% |
| T-11 | Broncos | @ NYG | 58% |
| T-11 | Seahawks | @ IND | 58% |
| 15 | Patriots | vs. MIA | 57% |
| 16 | Football Team | vs. LAC | 54% |
| 17 | Chargers | @ WAS | 46% |
| 18 | Dolphins | @ NE | 43% |
| T-19 | Colts | vs. SEA | 42% |
| T-19 | Giants | vs. DEN | 42% |
| T-19 | Bengals | vs. MIN | 42% |
| T-19 | Texans | vs. JAX | 42% |
| 23 | Cardinals | @ TEN | 41% |
| 24 | Eagles | @ ATL | 40% |
| T-25 | Raiders | vs. BAL | 35% |
| T-26 | Jets | @ CAR | 35% |
| 27 | Saints | vs. GB | 34% |
| 28 | Browns | @ KC | 31% |
| 29 | Steelers | @ BUF | 28% |
| 30 | Bears | @ LAR | 26% |
| T-31 | Lions | vs. SF | 25% |
| T-31 | Cowboys | @ TB | 25% |
Ranking Week 1 Spread Picks
I'll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I've also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.
