Straight up. Against the spread.
Whether you're playing in your office's (virtual) pool or in a higher-stakes contest like DraftKings' National Championship, I've created pick 'em confidence ratings to help you make your picks each week — complete with a custom against the spread edge calculator.
These pick 'em ratings are based on my NFL Power Ratings, which help power the model projections in our new PRO Report. They account for various factors such as travel, injuries and any news that could impact betting odds.
In theory, those odds should be fairly close to my ratings, but if we can identify any differences between the two, we can exploit them.
Now let’s get right to my Week 1 pick 'em confidence ratings for straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) contests.
Jump to ATS Ratings
Straight Up NFL Pick 'Em Rankings
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Win Prob% |
|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | vs. HOU | 79% |
| 2 | Ravens | vs. CLE | 75% |
| 3 | Colts | @ JAX | 74% |
| 4 | Patriots | vs. MIA | 73% |
| 5 | 49ers | vs. ARI | 72% |
| 6 | Bills | vs. NYJ | 72% |
| 7 | Eagles | @ WAS | 68% |
| 8 | Steelers | @ NYG | 67% |
| 9 | Vikings | vs. GB | 64% |
| 10 | Saints | vs. TB | 60% |
| 11 | Raiders | @ CAR | 58% |
| 12 | Lions | vs. CHI | 54% |
| 13 | Titans | @ DEN | 54% |
| 14 | Chargers | @ CIN | 54% |
| 15 | Seahawks | @ ATL | 54% |
| 16 | Cowboys | @ LAR | 54% |
| 17 | Falcons | vs. SEA | 46% |
| 18 | Rams | vs. DAL | 46% |
| 19 | Bengals | vs. LAC | 46% |
| 20 | Bears | @ DET | 46% |
| 21 | Broncos | vs. TEN | 46% |
| 22 | Panthers | vs. LV | 42% |
| 23 | Buccaneers | @ NO | 40% |
| 24 | Packers | @ MIN | 36% |
| 25 | Giants | vs. PIT | 33% |
| 26 | Washington | vs. PHI | 32% |
| 27 | Jets | @ BUF | 28% |
| 28 | Cardinals | @ SF | 28% |
| 29 | Dolphins | @ NE | 27% |
| 30 | Jaguars | vs. IND | 26% |
| 31 | Browns | @ BAL | 25% |
| 32 | Texans | @ KC | 21% |
ATS NFL Pick 'Em Rankings
The following ATS ratings are based on odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, but your contest may use different lines, so I've created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Spread |
|---|
| 1 | Vikings | vs. GB | -2.5 |
| 2 | Rams | vs. DAL | +3 |
| 3 | Bengals | vs. LAC | +3 |
| 4 | Bears | @ DET | +3 |
| 5 | Panthers | vs. LV | +3.5 |
| 6 | Buccaneers | @ NO | +3.5 |
| 7 | Jaguars | vs. IND | +8 |
| 8 | Broncos | vs. TEN | +2.5 |
| 9 | Patriots | vs. MIA | -6.5 |
| 9 | Cardinals | @ SF | +7 |
| 11 | Browns | @ BAL | +8 |
| 12 | Giants | vs. PIT | +5.5 |
| 13 | Chiefs | vs. HOU | -9 |
| 14 | Washington | vs. PHI | +5.5 |
| 15 | Bills | vs. NYJ | -6.5 |
| 16 | Seahawks | @ ATL | -1.5 |
| 17 | Falcons | vs. SEA | +1.5 |
| 18 | Jets | @ BUF | +6.5 |
| 19 | Eagles | @ WAS | -5.5 |
| 20 | Texans | @ KC | +9 |
| 21 | Steelers | @ NYG | +5.5 |
| 22 | Ravens | vs. CLE | -8 |
| 23 | 49ers | vs. ARI | -7 |
| 23 | Dolphins | @ NE | +6.5 |
| 25 | Titans | @ DEN | -2.5 |
| 26 | Colts | @ JAX | -8 |
| 27 | Saints | vs. TB | -3.5 |
| 28 | Raiders | @ CAR | -3.5 |
| 29 | Lions | vs. CHI | -3 |
| 30 | Chargers | @ CIN | -3 |
| 31 | Cowboys | @ LAR | -3 |
| 32 | Packers | @ MIN | +2.5 |
About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons
Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.
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